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Substance Abuse in States and Metropolitan Areas:
Model Based Estimates from the 1991-1993 National Household Surveys on Drug Abuse

CITATION:

Table of Contents (TOC)

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List of Exhibits

Executive Summary

1. Introduction

1.1 Drug Use Measures

1.2 Need for Small Area Estimates

1.3 Quality/Usefulness of the Estimates

2. Methodology Used

2.1 Potential Estimation Strategies for Small Areas

2.2 Small Area Estimation Method Used

2.3 Fitting the Small Area Estimation Model

2.3.1 Data Used

2.3.2 States and MSAs selected for estimation

2.3.3 Summary of methodology

2.3.4 Confidence Intervals

3. State And MSA Small Area Estimates

3.1 Cigarette And Alcohol Use

3.2 Illicit Drug Use

3.3 Dependence On Substances

3.4 Treatment For Substance Abuse

3.5 Arrested For Any Crime In Past Year

4. Method Evaluation

4.1 Evaluation Strategies

4.2 Results of the Evaluations

4.3 Summary of the Evaluations

Appendices:

• Appendix A - - Estimation of Drug and Alcohol Dependence

• Appendix B - - Definition of 25 MSAs Selected for Small Area Estimation

• Appendix C - - Confidence Intervals

Footnotes

 List of Exhibits

Estimated Number of Persons Aged 12 and Older (In Thousands):

• Exhibit 3.1A - -  Using Substances for 26 States
• Exhibit 3.1B - -  Exhibiting Substance Abuse Problems for 26 States

• Exhibit 3.2A - -  Using Substances for 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs)
• Exhibit 3.2B - -  Exhibiting Substance Abuse Problems for 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs)

Estimated Percentage of Population Aged 12 and Older:

• Exhibit 3.4A - - Using Substances for 25 MSAs
• Exhibit 3.4B - - With Substance Abuse Problems for 25 MSAs

95% Confidence Bounds for Percent of Population Aged 12 and Older:

• Exhibit 3.5 - - with Past Month Cigarette Use Within 26 States
• Exhibit 3.6 - - with Past Month Alcohol Use Within 26 States
• Exhibit 3.7  - - with Past Month Any Illicit Drug Use Within 26 States
• Exhibit 3.8 - - with Past Month Use of Any Illicit Drug Except Marijuana Within 26 States
• Exhibit 3.9 - -  with Past Month Cocaine Use Within 26 States
• Exhibit 3.10 - - with Past Year Dependency on Illicit Drugs Within 26 States
• Exhibit 3.11 - - with Past Year Dependency on Alcohol Within 26 States
• Exhibit 3.12 - - with Past Year Illicit Drug Use Treatment Within 26 States
• Exhibit 3.13 - - with Past Year Alcohol Treatment Within 26 States
• Exhibit 3.14 - - Needing Treatment in Past Year Within 26 States
• Exhibit 3.15 - - Arrested in Past Year Within 26 States

Summary of evaluation of the final SAE model:

• Exhibit 4.1 - - Summary of evaluation of the final SAE model composite based on forming evaluation subgroups and comparing the model based estimates with the direct survey estimates. Correlations, Chi-squared probability and range ratios

• Exhibit 4.2 - - Summary of Evaluations of Final SAE Model and Comparisons to Alternative Models Based on a Cross-validation Goodness-of-fit Tests. Correlations, χ²- Probabilities, and Range Ratios

Comparison of Alternative Small Area Estimators to Direct Survey Estimates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS):

• Exhibit 4.3 - - Comparison of Alternative Small Area Estimators of Prevalence of Alcohol Use to Direct Survey Estimates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)
• Exhibit 4.4 - - Comparison of Alternative Small Area Estimators of Past Month Prevalence of Cigarette Use to Direct Survey Estimates from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS)

• Exhibit 4.5 - - Comparison of Alternative Small Area Estimators of Prevalence Past Year Drug Treatment to Estimates from the National Drug and Alcoholism Treatment Unit Survey (NDATUS)

• Exhibit 4.6 - - Comparison of Alternative Small Area Direct Estimators of Prevalence Past Year Arrests to Estimates Based on the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)

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