Goal: A major part of the NIH mission is directly dependent on its timely support of peer-reviewed, meritorious research identified by CSR. The purpose of this evaluation is to explore the use of various system dynamics simulation model analyses to arrive at more accurate estimates of both the number of applications and needed resources for review.

A comparison will be made of the predictive capabilities of a system dynamics (SD) simulation model in comparison to the statistical model traditionally used. An SD model is a structural model of the system under study, which means that it incorporates the operational activities and management processes that make up that system itself. On the other hand, statistical models only use data related to the system under study and, in fact, treat the system itself as a black box for which there is no knowledge of the internal workings. Both models will be created for the next cycle and an assessment of their accuracy, cost, timeliness, and feasibility will be made to determine which should be adopted as a key CSR process to ensure proper workload adjustments in order to meet the CSR mission of reviewing applications.

Expected benefits: More accurate predictions of the number of applications NIH will receive and that CSR will need to process and review. These more accurate estimates will allow better workload and budget estimates and justifications.

Status: Data have been collected, modeling has begun, and the project is expected to be completed by the end of March 2007. A draft presentation by the consultant of the final model is scheduled at CSR for March 23, 2007. The draft comparison model of a traditional statistical approach has been completed. The final model will be completed by the end of February.

Schedule for Implementation: Data have been collected, modeling has begun, and the project is expected to be completed by the end of March 2007.  A draft presentation by the consultant of the final model is scheduled at CSR for March 23, 2007.