Improper Payment Reduction Outlook FY 2006 - FY 2010

a. The table is required for each reporting agency. Agencies must include the following information:

all risk susceptible programs whether or not an error measurement is being reported;
where no measurement is provided, indicate the date by which a measurement is expected;
if the Current Year (CY) is the baseline measurement year, indicate by either footnote or by “n/a” in the Prior Year (PY) column;
if any of the dollar amount(s) included in the estimate correspond to newly established measurement components in addition to previously established measurement components, separate the two amounts to the extent possible;
include outlay estimates for CY +1, +2, and +3; and
Agencies are expected to report on CY activity, or if this is not feasible, then activity from the most recent prior year is acceptable. Future year outlay estimates (CY+1, +2 and +3) should match the outlay estimates for those years as reported in the most recent President’s Budget.

Improper Payment Reduction Outlook FY 2006 - FY 2010 ($ in millions)

Program	PY Outlays	PY %	PY$	CY Outlays	CY IP%	CY IP$	CY+1 Est Outlays	CY+1 IP%	CY+1 IP$	CY+2 Est Outlays	CY+2 IP%	CY+2 IP$	CY+3 Est Outlays	CY+3 IP%	CY+3 IP$
Medicare FFS	$246,800 Note (a)	4.4%	$10,800 (9.8B over, 1.0B under)	$276,200 Note (b)	3.9%	$10.8B (9.8B over, 1.0B under)	$312,062 Note (c)	3.8%	$11.9	$333,535	3.7%	$12.3	$347,700	3.6%	$12.5
Medicare MC	55,919 Note (d)	N/A	N/A	75,128	N/A Note (1)	N/A Note (1)	91,768	N/A	N/A	98,926	N/A	N/A	110,391	N/A	N/A
Medicare Drug	31,717 Note (e)	N/A	N/A	49,256	N/A Note (2)	N/A Note (2)	59,174	N/A	N/A	66,484	N/A	N/A	75,143	N/A	N/A
Medicaid	180,625 Note (f)	N/A	N/A	70,117 Note (g)	18.45 Note (3)	12,900 Note (3)	209,835	N/A	N/A	223,628	N/A	N/A	240,147	N/A	N/A
SCHIP	5,451 Note (h)	N/A	N/A	6,294	N/A	N/A	5,691	N/A	N/A	5,525	N/A	N/A	5,542	N/A	N/A
TANF	16,897	N/A	N/A	17,318	N/A Note (4)	N/A Note (4)	17,296	N/A	N/A	17,208	N/A	N/A	16,812	N/A	N/A
Foster Care	1,621	7.68	124.5	1,565	3.30	51.6	1,518	3.25	49.3	1,469	3.10	45.5	1,426	3.00	42.8
Head Start	6,771	3.1	210	6,771	1.3	88	6,771	1.2	81.3	6,771	1.1	74.5	6,771	1.0	67.7
Child Care	5,252	N/A	N/A	4,852	N/A Note (5)	N/A Note (5)	4,853	N/A	N/A	4,955	N/A	N/A	4,940	N/A	N/A

(a) -PY Outlays for Medicare FFS are from the November 2006 Improper Medicare FFS Payments Report (based on CY 2005 claims).
(b) CY Outlays for Medicare FFS are from the November 2007 Improper Medicare FFS Payments Report (based on CY 2006 claims).
(c) Medicare FFS CY+1, CY+2, and CY+3 outlay numbers based on Mid-session Review (Medicare Outlays Current Law (CL).
(d) Medicare Advantage PY, CY, CY+1, CY+2, and CY+3 outlay numbers based on Mid-session Review (Medicare Outlays (CL)
(e) Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit PY, CY, CY+1, CY+2, and CY+3 outlay numbers based on Mid-session Review (Medicare Outlays (CL)
(f) Medicaid PY, CY, CY +1, CY +2, and CY +3 outlay numbers based on Mid-session Review (Medicaid Net Outlays (CL), excluding CDC Program Vaccine for Children obligations)
(g) Medicaid CY outlay number based on FY 2006 fee-for-service claims processed by the states during the first six months for which the preliminary rate was calculated.
(h) SCHIP PY, CY+1, CY+2, and CY+3 outlay numbers based on Mid-session Review (SCHIP Total Outlays (CL).

Report Date: November 15, 2007