Market Outlook
Trade
Commodity Policy
Market Outlook
For information on current and previous baseline projections
for rice, see the market outlook
chapter.
Rice
Yearbook (annual in November) provides in-depth information and analysis
of U.S. and international rice markets that include a
recap of the previous market year and the outlook for
the coming year. The domestic section focuses on U.S.
production, export markets, and prices. The global section
looks at major importers and exporters and describes factors driving
international trade.
Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices (May 2008) explores the many factors that have contributed to the runup in food commodity prices over the last 2 years.
Characteristics and
Production Costs of U.S. Rice Farms (March 2004) reports that regional
differences in production practices, farm characteristics,
and growing conditions were major influences on production
costs incurred by U.S. rice producers in 2000. Three-quarters
of rice production was concentrated on large and very
large farms, categories that included nearly two-thirds
of all rice farms.
Developing
Supply and Utilization Tables for the U.S. Rice Market (November 2000) explains how USDA prepares monthly supply and use tables
for the U.S. rice sector. It describes data sources, start-of-
year forecasts, and yearend estimates.
Characteristics
of U.S. Rice Farming (November 2000) uses census data to describe the structure of rice farming
in the United States.
Trade
Indian Wheat and Rice
Sector Policies and the Implications of Reform (May 2007) suggests
that future developments in India's food grain sector
will be shaped by how policies adapt to the sector's
new economic environment. Some changes, such as reducing
price supports and the scope of government food grain
operations, would likely cut government costs, benefit
consumers, allow a larger private sector role in the domestic
market, and increase reliance on trade.
Commercialization of Food
Consumption in Rural China (July 2005) finds that rural households
rely on self-produced commodities, especially grains and
vegetables, for a large share of the food they consume.
However, as incomes rise and markets develop, rural households
are purchasing more of their food from markets.
China's New Farm Subsidies (February 2005) describes new policies that China implemented in 2004
and assesses their impact on Chinese rural income and
grain production. China introduced direct subsidies for
farmers, began to phase out its centuries-old agricultural
tax, and implemented other policies benefitting farmers.
China's
Japonica Rice Market: Growth and Competitiveness (November 2002) briefly describes the evolution of China's japonica rice
market over the last two decades, including the impact
of changes on China's competitiveness in key Asian import
markets. While China has traditionally exported long grain
(or indica) rice varieties, in recent years, it has exported
substantial amounts of japonica rice as well.
Taiwan's
Rice Import Market to Open with WTO Accession (November 2001) reviews Taiwan's policies towards its most important
crop. WTO accession in 2002 has introduced a minimum access
import quota of 8 percent, and Taiwan's government is
preparing to enlarge the paddy area that farmers leave
fallow in order to withdraw an equivalent amount of production
from the market.
The U.S. Rice
Export Market (November 2000) analyzes the markets for different types of U.S.-grown
rice. Trends within each market are addressed, as well
as the U.S. position in global rice trade.
Rice
Tariffication in Japan: What Does It Mean for Trade? (April 1999) examines how Japan used tariff-rate quotas in 1999 and
2000 to slow growth in rice imports. While Japan now allows
imports above the minimum amounts required under the Uruguay
Round Agreement on Agriculture, tariffs on rice imports
above minimum access are prohibitively high—in 1999,
450 percent of the price of imported rice. U.S. rice exports
to Japan likely increased at a slower rate than under
fixed quantitative limits.
Commodity Policy
Valuing Counter-Cyclical
Payments: Implications for Producer Risk Management and
Program Administration (February 2007) illustrates an improved method
for estimating counter-cyclical payment rates by accounting
for the variability in market price forecast errors. Forecasters
and producers can use the model to calculate the probability
of having to repay advanced counter-cyclical payments.
Rice Backgrounder (December 2006) reports that U.S. rice farming is a high-cost, large-scale
operation. While domestic disappearance continues to increase,
the outlook for rice farm incomes is tempered by higher
production costs and continued strong competition in many
international markets from lower cost Asian exporters.
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