Child Care Eligibility and Enrollment Estimates for Fiscal Year 2005

Child Care Eligibility:
State-by-State Estimates

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Calendar Years

State-by-State Average Monthly Counts of Children, CY 2005
Eligible for CCDF Under October 2005 CCDF State-Specific Rules
State Average Monthly Children Eligible for CCDF under State Rules,
(Oct. 2005 State Plans)1,2
Number 95% confidence interval3 (low-high)
Alabama 122,469 93,346 151,591
Alaska 28,289 22,482 34,095
Arizona 185,543 146,738 224,347
Arkansas 58,997 42,759 75,235
California 1,365,450 1,259,384 1,471,516
Colorado 171,084 134,226 207,942
Connecticut 80,539 58,877 102,200
Delaware 24,125 18,198 30,052
DC 26,485 20,869 32,100
Florida 429,824 373,410 486,237
Georgia 252,248 209,793 294,703
Hawaii 65,500 54,290 76,710
Idaho 29,902 21,460 38,344
Illinois 439,912 382,591 497,232
Indiana 101,964 74,977 128,950
Iowa 52,472 36,124 68,820
Kansas 79,047 59,504 98,589
Kentucky 100,158 73,772 126,543
Louisiana 196,366 159,428 233,303
Maine 48,771 37,549 59,993
Maryland 136,398 104,508 168,288
Massachusetts 98,673 72,389 124,957
Michigan 210,528 171,647 249,409
Minnesota 94,507 68,660 120,353
Mississippi 121,530 97,632 145,428
Missouri 92,012 66,019 118,005
Montana 19,675 14,086 25,264
Nebraska 23,403 14,972 31,834
Nevada 114,339 91,820 136,858
New Hampshire 21,608 14,635 28,581
New Jersey 171,619 135,985 207,252
New Mexico 74,913 57,954 91,872
New York 563,925 497,902 629,948
North Carolina 304,114 256,858 351,370
North Dakota 20,058 15,448 24,667
Ohio 353,522 303,056 403,987
Oklahoma 182,956 149,762 216,149
Oregon 73,933 51,751 96,114
Pennsylvania 364,208 312,998 415,418
Rhode Island 31,994 24,023 39,964
South Carolina 127,628 97,703 157,552
South Dakota 32,000 26,000 37,999
Tennessee 93,430 67,609 119,250
Texas 625,230 552,510 697,949
Utah 79,230 63,260 95,199
Vermont 14,375 10,236 18,514
Virginia 224,135 184,117 264,152
Washington 188,058 150,242 225,874
West Virginia 36,977 27,214 46,740
Wisconsin 173,948 138,368 209,527
Wyoming 14,740 10,914 18,565
Total 8,542,798 8,308,425 8,777,175
Source:  The TRIM3 microsimulation model, developed/maintained by the Urban Institute under HHS/ASPE funding, using two-year averages of data from the Current Population Survey (calendar years 2004 and 2005).
Notes:
Caution should be taken when comparing estimates across years because of methodological improvements in the TRIM model.
1 Criteria for the October 2005 CCDF eligibility count: (a) child is under age 13 or is simulated by TRIM to receive SSI and is under the state's disabled age limit; (b) any parent/guardian present is a student or is working at least the minimum hours se
2 Each estimate is the average of two estimates:  the estimated number obtained using the CY 2005 TRIM-CPS data and the estimated number obtained from using the CY 2004 TRIM-CPS data.  Two years of data are used to increase the reliability of the estimate.
3 Because the estimates are calculated on a sample of the population rather than the complete population, the true numbers may differ from the estimates.  However, there is a 95 percent chance that the true number of children falls within the range define.

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State-by-State Average Monthly Counts of Children, CY 2003
Eligible for CCDF Under October 2003 CCDF State-Specific Rules

State

 Average Monthly Children Eligible for CCDF under State Rules,
(Oct. 2003 State Plans) 1,2
Number 95% confidence interval3 (low high)
Alabama 118,100 91,100 145,200
Alaska 34,700 29,300 40,000
Arizona 169,400 131,700 207,200
Arkansas 75,000 57,100 92,900
California 1,493,600 1,364,500 1,622,600
Colorado 167,300 139,200 195,500
Connecticut 103,100 83,600 122,600
Delaware 26,100 20,500 31,600
DC 25,300 20,400 30,200
Florida 428,800 370,400 487,300
Georgia 180,300 135,100 225,500
Hawaii 72,300 61,200 83,500
Idaho 30,300 22,400 38,300
Illinois 460,300 401,600 519,000
Indiana 67,600 47,200 87,900
Iowa 42,500 30,300 54,700
Kansas 59,300 45,400 73,300
Kentucky 90,100 67,800 112,400
Louisiana 214,200 175,600 252,700
Maine 54,500 45,800 63,100
Maryland 106,400 80,800 132,100
Massachusetts 115,200 88,300 142,000
Michigan 240,100 199,500 280,800
Minnesota 94,100 71,300 117,000
Mississippi 147,800 121,200 174,500
Missouri 102,000 76,100 127,900
Montana 20,200 14,600 25,900
Nebraska 28,000 19,900 36,100
Nevada 121,200 103,700 138,800
New Hampshire 23,800 17,900 29,600
New Jersey 162,900 131,100 194,800
New Mexico 109,500 89,700 129,300
New York 651,100 583,600 718,600
North Carolina 343,700 293,000 394,500
North Dakota 19,800 15,800 23,900
Ohio 147,900 114,800 181,000
Oklahoma 220,200 187,600 252,700
Oregon 81,600 62,100 101,100
Pennsylvania 229,400 189,700 269,100
Rhode Island 37,600 31,200 44,100
South Carolina 104,700 80,900 128,600
South Dakota 32,800 27,300 38,200
Tennessee 116,500 84,500 148,400
Texas 665,000 582,300 747,700
Utah 74,200 58,900 89,500
Vermont 17,500 13,900 21,200
Virginia 231,200 185,900 276,400
Washington 198,800 159,000 238,600
West Virginia 39,400 30,100 48,700
Wisconsin 163,000 132,500 193,500
Wyoming 19,500 15,800 23,100
Total 8,578,000 8,338,600 8,817,300
Source:  The TRIM3 microsimulation model, developed/maintained by the Urban Institute under HHS/ASPE funding, using two-year averages of data from the Current Population Survey (calendar years 2002 and 2003).
Notes:
Caution should be taken when comparing estimates across years because of methodological improvements in the TRIM model.
1 Criteria for the October 2003 CCDF eligibility count:  (a) child is under age 13 or is simulated by TRIM to receive SSI and is under the state's disabled age limit; (b) any parent/guardian present is a student or is working at least the minimum hours set by the state; (c) family income is under the state's income limit for new or continuing participants (depending on whether the family was simulated to receive subsidies in the prior month), using state rules for income disregards and earned income deductions.  October 2003 state rules are based on the Urban Institute's analysis of the October 2003 State Plans for CCDF.
2 Each estimate is the average of two estimates:  the estimated number obtained using the CY 2003 TRIM-CPS data and the estimated number obtained from using the CY 2002 TRIM-CPS data.  Two years of data are used to increase the reliability of the estimates.  The same rules are applied to both years of data, but dollar values applied to the CY 2002 data are multiplied by .9777 to adjust for the difference between the CPI-U of 179.9 in 2002 vs. 184.0 in 2003.
3 Because the estimates are calculated on a sample of the population rather than the complete population, the true numbers may differ from the estimates.  However, there is a 95 percent chance that the true number of children falls within the range defined by the confidence interval.

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Average Monthly Children Eligible1 For CCDF Subsidies
Under October 2001 State Rules
State Number2 95% conf (low-high)
Alabama 155,090 119,425 190,755
Alaska 27,658 21,902 33,414
Arizona 205,958 164,205 247,711
Arkansas 90,079 68,940 111,217
California 1,682,645 1,545,680 1,819,609
Colorado 109,335 81,690 136,980
Connecticut 169,539 133,832 205,245
Delaware 31,767 24,166 39,368
DC 27,836 21,961 33,711
Florida 588,663 519,020 658,306
Georgia 330,568 268,173 392,963
Hawaii 66,450 52,843 80,056
Idaho 33,163 24,468 41,859
Illinois 352,125 298,167 406,083
Indiana 128,962 92,018 165,905
Iowa 62,281 43,454 81,108
Kansas 90,304 68,774 111,834
Kentucky 123,354 93,408 153,301
Louisiana 187,341 148,595 226,087
Maine 48,122 36,656 59,588
Maryland 104,650 70,495 138,804
Massachusetts 190,184 153,842 226,525
Michigan 300,920 251,944 349,896
Minnesota 199,098 157,291 240,905
Mississippi 149,888 121,464 178,313
Missouri 95,373 62,960 127,786
Montana 32,990 25,494 40,486
Nebraska 54,800 41,050 68,551
Nevada 129,585 108,211 150,958
New Hampshire 38,659 28,373  48,946
New Jersey 200,869 163,266 238,473
New Mexico 121,374 100,470 142,278
New York 595,147 527,837 662,457
North Carolina 389,681 334,122 445,239
North Dakota 26,606 20,705 32,507
Ohio 387,036 328,974 445,098
Oklahoma 120,389 93,925 146,853
Oregon 131,425 100,903 161,947
Pennsylvania 359,125 304,913 413,337
Rhode Island 31,343 23,152 39,534
South Carolina 116,123 86,212 146,034
South Dakota 15,031 10,461 19,601
Tennessee 141,706 102,037 181,375
Texas 674,354 590,953 757,756
Utah 71,862 56,228 87,496
Vermont 23,478 17,630 29,326
Virginia 172,204 126,774 217,634
Washington 216,571 166,812 266,331
West Virginia 70,880 55,742 86,018
Wisconsin 196,899 152,855 240,943
Wyoming 14,708 10,870 18,546
Total 9,884,198 9,602,978 10,165,418
Notes:
Caution should be taken when comparing estimates across years because of methodological improvements in the TRIM model.
1. See Appendix Tables 1 through 5 for income eligibility thresholds and other eligibility rules set by the states in their October 2001 state plans.
2. Estimates are based on the Urban Institute's TRIM 3 microsimulation model, using three-year averages of data from the Current Population Survey (calendar years 1999-2001).

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State-by-State Estimates of Children Identified in the Simulations
Children Eligible under State Rules
(October 1999)
State Number 95% conf (low-high)
Alabama 118,900 85,200 152,600
Alaska 48,200 39,800 56,600
Arizona 190,000 147,600 232,400
Arkansas 73,700 53,200 94,300
California 1,660,900 1,517,100 1,804,600
Colorado 105,700 75,300 136,200
Connecticut 109,800 77,100 142,500
Delaware 31,100 22,900 39,300
DC 22,900 16,900 29,000
Florida 374,700 315,100 434,300
Georgia 321,400 255,100 387,700
Hawaii 86,400 69,100 103,700
Idaho 45,900 34,900 56,800
Illinois 372,200 311,900 432,500
Indiana 116,700 77,000 156,400
Iowa 66,900 45,300 88,600
Kansas 98,600 73,800 123,300
Kentucky 99,700 69,800 129,600
Louisiana 221,200 176,200 266,200
Maine 55,600 41,500 69,700
Maryland 101,000 64,600 137,300
Massachusetts 195,500 156,000 234,900
Michigan 384,300 325,300 443,200
Minnesota 217,100 168,800 265,300
Mississippi 162,600 130,600 194,500
Missouri 121,000 80,800 161,200
Montana 37,900 29,300 46,500
Nebraska 74,500 56,900 92,000
Nevada 111,300 89,500 133,100
New Hampshire 32,400 21,400 43,300
New Jersey 137,600 104,200 171,000
New Mexico 125,200 103,100 147,200
New York 636,300 561,900 710,700
North Carolina 387,300 327,900 446,800
North Dakota 34,900 27,500 42,300
Ohio 349,700 290,600 408,700
Oklahoma 82,100 58,300 105,800
Oregon 114,600 83,800 145,500
Pennsylvania 438,200 374,000 502,500
Rhode Island 32,800 23,000 42,700
South Carolina 102,200 70,800 133,700
South Dakota 19,500 13,800 25,100
Tennessee 180,000 131,100 228,800
Texas 690,000 599,500 780,500
Utah 70,100 52,900 87,400
Vermont 26,000 19,200 32,700
Virginia 221,300 165,000 277,700
Washington 177,500 126,600 228,400
West Virginia 45,000 32,000 58,000
Wisconsin 132,100 93,100 171,100
Wyoming 16,000 11,700 20,400
Total 9,676,300 9,374,000 9,978,700
Notes:  The first column shows estimates for child care subsides funded by the Child Care Development Fund (CCDF) under the income eligibility thresholds and other eligibility rules set by the states in their October 1999 state plans. The second column shows estimates if all states raised their income eligibility thresholds to 85% of their State Median Income, the maximum allowed under Federal law, and set uniform values for other eligibility rules.  Estimates are based on the Urban Institute's TRIM 3 microsimulation model, using three-year averages of data from the Current Population Survey (calendar years 1997-1999).

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