Learn About Your Risk from Smoking: How it Works & About the Data

Everyone has heard that smoking cigarettes is unhealthy, but few people really know how big these health effects are. This Web page allows smokers to get personalized information about their own risk. The information refers specifically to people who:

  • Started to smoke at the same age as you
  • Are your age now
  • Smoke the same number of cigarettes a day
  • Are the same sex as you

Nonsmokers can also see the risks that smokers face. The data used here were provided by Michael Thun and Jane Henley of the American Cancer Society and come from a very large study that followed over a million smokers for 6 years. Risk data are available for people who are at least 30 years old. The earliest quit age is also 30.

What You'll See

  • A graph will show your risk of dying of lung cancer now and in the future, if you smoke. For comparison, the graph also shows the same risk for nonsmokers.
  • A button at the top of the page allows you to see how much quitting can reduce your risk of dying.

The numbers represent the number of people out of a group of 10,000 smokers like you who will have died by each age.

You can also choose to view another graph that shows your combined risk of dying from all causes (cancer, heart disease, accidents, pneumonia, etc.).

Enter Your Smoking Profile:
Do you smoke cigarettes now or did you in the past? (At least one cigarette a day for a year)


Reference: Thun, M. J., Myers, D. G., Day-Lally, C., Namboodiri, M. M., Calle, E. E., Flanders, W. D., et al. (1997). Age and the exposure-response relationships between cigarette smoking and premature death. In Smoking and tobacco control monograph 8: Changes in cigarette-related disease risks and their implications for prevention and control (pp. 383-475). Bethesda, MD: National Cancer Institute..

Smokefree.gov National Cancer Institute Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Institutes of Health Department of Health and Human Services USA.gov