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Market Analysis
Commodity Policy
Trade
Market Analysis
For information on current and previous baseline projections
for wheat, see the market
outlook chapter.
Wheat Year in Review (Domestic): High U.S. Exports Drive Record Prices and Low 2007/08 Ending Stocks (November 2008) reviews the U.S. wheat supply and disappearance for the 2007/08 marketing year and the record-high prices for U.S. wheat farmers. Previous issues of the Wheat Yearbook are also available.
Wheat Year in Review (International): Low 2007/08 Stocks and Higher Prices Drive Outlook (May
2008) reviews the world situation for the 2007/08 marketing
year. The low stocks and high prices during fall 2007,
and favorable planting conditions for the Northern Hemisphere,
resulted in more planted area. With the increase in planted
area, and normal weather, global production should reach
a record high in 2008/09.
The U.S. Grain Consumption
Landscape: Who Eats Grain, In What Form, Where, and How
Much? (November 2007) compares Americans consumption
of grains with the recommendations in the Government's
2005 Dietary Guidelines, using data from USDA's Continuing
Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals, 1994-96 and 1998.
Results suggest that consumers who perceive grain consumption
as important and read food labels during shopping tend
to eat more whole grains than other people.
The Changing Face of the
U.S. Grain System (February 2007) discusses the evolving
nature of U.S. grain handling and marketing, which is
increasingly marked by product differentiation and market
segmentation. More specialty crops now require either
some form of segregation or full-scale identity preservation
to keep them separate from conventional commodities. Market
segmentation within the grain system is driven by the
need to preserve market value or ensure product purity.
Hard White
Wheat at a Crossroads (December 2004) provides background
on the forces that led to the expansion of hard white
wheat (HWW) production, its milling and baking qualities
that make it particularly suited for certain products
such as tortillas and Oriental noodles, the adaptation
of the marketing system to preserve its identity, and
the prospects for HWW's production expansion. Continuing
expansion of HWW production would depend on the development
of new, higher yielding varieties that are more tolerant
to sprout damage and the continuation of the government
incentive program.
Characteristics and
Production Costs of U.S. Wheat Farms (July 2002) reports
that the average cost of producing a bushel of wheat in
1998 was $3.97, ranging from about $1.25 to more than
$6 per bushel. Regional differences in production practices
and growing conditions were major influences on production
costs and yields among wheat producers.
How Wheat Production
Costs Vary (March 2002) draws on the most recent Agricultural Resource
Management Survey (ARMS) to show that the cost of producing
wheat varied widely among growers, due primarily to differences
in production practices and yields.
Price Determination for
Corn and Wheat: The Role of Market Factors and Government
Programs (August 1999) finds a number of factors affect
U.S. farm-level prices for corn and wheat, indicated by
models based on supply and demand conditions as well as
government policies.
Providing
Timely Farm Price Forecasts: Using Wheat Futures Prices
to Forecast U.S. Wheat Prices at the Farm Level
(June 1999) includes technical analyses of forecasting wheat prices.
Commodity Policy
Valuing Counter-Cyclical
Payments: Implications for Producer Risk Management and
Program Administration (February 2007) illustrates
an improved method for estimating counter-cyclical payment
rates by accounting for the variability in market price
forecast errors. Forecasters and producers can use the
model to calculate the probability of having to repay
advanced counter-cyclical payments.
Wheat Backgrounder
(December 2005) addresses key domestic and international
market and policy developments that have affected the
U.S. wheat sector in recent years. The report contains
information on supply and demand developments, domestic
and trade policy, a wheat farm profile and financial characteristics,
and addresses issues and opportunities to be considered
in domestic agricultural policy deliberations.
Wheat and
Barley Policies in Japan (November 2004) provides
a detailed description and analysis of policies used by
Japan to support its wheat and barley producers. Japan
uses tax revenues and a markup on prices of wheat and
barley imported within a quota to provide large direct
payments to producers. Consumers and taxpayers ultimately
pay for this support.
The 2002 Farm Act: Provisions
and Implications for Commodity Markets (November 2002)
provides an initial assessment of the legislation's effects
on agricultural production, commodity markets, and net
farm income over the next 10 years. Results indicate that
commodity market impacts are fairly small. Net farm income
is projected higher than under a continuation of the 1996
Farm Act, largely reflecting an increase in government
payments.
Economic Analysis of Ending
the Issuance of Karnal Bunt Phytosanitary Wheat Export
Certificates
(March 2002) indicates that ending this certification
program would jeopardize U.S. exports to some countries.
The loss of export markets for U.S. wheat producers would
be only partially offset by increased domestic feeding
of lower priced wheat. Reduced wheat production and lower
wheat prices would reduce the total value of the wheat
produced in the country, as well as net income in U.S.
agriculture.
Wheat: Background
and Issues for Farm Legislation (August 2002) addresses
considerations in the 2002 farm bill debate, including
market conditions, policy proposals, trade agreements,
and the interactions between policy and markets.
Analysis of the U.S.
Commodity Loan Program with Marketing Loan Provisions
(May 2001) assesses the impacts of marketing loans on
production, use, and prices, and illustrates that the
program has enabled farmers to attain, on average, per-unit
revenues that exceed commodity loan rates.
Wheat and
the Conservation Reserve Program: Past, Present, and Future
(March 1997) contains background on the impact of USDA's
land retirement program on wheat production, particularly
in the Plains.
Trade
Wheat
Year in Review (International): Low 2007/08 Stocks and
Higher Prices Drive Outlook
(May 2008) reviews the world situation for the 2007/08
marketing year. The low stocks and high prices during
fall 2007, and favorable planting conditions for the Northern
Hemisphere, resulted in more planted area. With the increase
in planted area, and normal weather, global production
should reach a record high in 2008/09.
Global Agricultural
Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent
Increase in Food Commodity Prices (July 2008) explores
the many factors that have contributed to the runup in
food commodity prices over the last 2 years.
Indian Wheat and Rice
Sector Policies and the Implications of Reform (May
2007) suggests that future developments in India's food
grain sector will be shaped by how policies adapt to the
sector's new economic environment. Some changes, such
as reducing price supports and the scope of government
food grain operations, would likely cut government costs,
benefit consumers, allow a larger private sector role
in the domestic market, and increase reliance on trade.
Black
Sea Grain Exports: Will They Be Moderate or Large?
(October 2004) examines the prospects for grain exports
(mostly wheat) by the transition economies of Central
and Eastern Europe and the Newly Independent States that
export through the Black Sea, the largest being Russia
and Ukraine. If productivity growth in the region is high,
annual grain exports by Black Sea countries could rise
to 30-40 million metric tons.
China's Wheat
Economy: Current Trends and Prospects for Imports
(May 2004) provides an overview of wheat production and
consumption trends in China, including factors that contributed
to slumping imports in recent years. It projects that
China will regain its status as a net wheat importer,
with imports rising sharply in the next year or two (2005-06),
but falling back to modest levels after that.
Mycotoxin
Hazards and Regulations: Impacts on Food and Animal Feed
Crop Trade (November 2003) addresses the difficulty of balancing food safety concerns
and efforts to limit the economic costs of trade disruptions.
This chapter reviews food safety risks posed by mycotoxin-contaminated
grains and demonstrates that a lack of international consensus
on mycotoxin standards has important trade implications.
International Wheat
Breeding and Future Wheat Productivity in Developing Countries
(March 2002) explains the slowing of wheat yield growth
in developing countries and examines future challenges
for wheat breeding in these countries.
The New Agricultural
Trade Negotiations: Background and Issues for the U.S.
Wheat Sector
(March 2000) focuses on further reducing tariffs and improving
market access, eliminating and prohibiting the use of
export subsidies, nd placing further limitations on trade-distorting
domestic support programs.
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