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Estimating the supply and use of U.S. wheat is a joint effort of
several agencies of USDA's wheat Interagency Commodity Estimates
Committee (ICEC). Through the ICEC, USDA estimates supply and use
variables for each of the
five U.S. classes of wheat: hard red winter, hard red spring,
soft red winter, white, and durum. These estimates are published
monthly in World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE), and changes in the estimates from month-to-month are explained
in ERS' monthly Wheat Outlook. For more information on the
process, see USDA outlook
process.
The general framework for these estimates is provided below, as
well as details on estimation of wheat food use and trade and the
sources of information used. For data on food use and trade,
see the Food
Use and Exports
and Imports sections of the Wheat
Yearbook.
Wheat Supply
Estimating the U.S. supply of wheat is the sum of carryin stocks,
production, and imports for each of the five classes:
Carryin stocks
+ production
+ imports
= supply
- Carryin Stocks estimates, both on- and off-farm, for
total wheat (five classes of wheat) and for durum wheat
are provided quarterly by USDA's National Agricultural
Statistics Service (NASS). Durum stocks are subtracted
from all wheat stocks to get a subtotal indicating what
wheat ICEC can allocate to the remaining four classes
of wheat. Carryin stocks are the ending stocks of the
preceding period.
- Production estimates for each of the five classes are
provided by NASS seven times per year.
- Import estimates
for each class of wheat are made by ERS and vetted by
the wheat ICEC.
Wheat Use
Estimating the use of wheat by class begins with the supply estimates.
Estimates for food and seed uses, exports, and ending stocks
are subtracted from estimated supply to derive feed and
residual use.
Supply
- food use
- seed use
- exports
- ending stocks
= feed and residual use
- Food Use estimates
for each class of wheat are made by ERS and then vetted
by the wheat ICEC. Durum food use is subtracted from
total food use of wheat to get a subtotal that the wheat
ICEC can allocate across the remaining four classes
of wheat.
- Seed Use estimates for each class of wheat
are provided by NASS four to six times per year.
- Export estimates for each class
of wheat are made by ERS and then vetted by the wheat ICEC.
- Ending Stocks estimates, both on- and off-farm,
for total wheat (all five classes of wheat) and for
durum wheat are provided by NASS. Durum stocks are subtracted
from all wheat stocks to get a subtotal that the wheat
ICEC can allocate across the remaining four classes
of wheat. The endings stocks for one period are the
carryin stocks for the following period.
Feed and Residual Use is calculated to ensure
that ending stocks are consistent with total supply and
known uses of wheat for export, seed, and food. The estimate
includes both feed use and a residual that accounts for
errors made in estimating the other variables.
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