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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster.
Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.
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Prognostic Discussions
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Valid: Jan 20 - 24, 2009 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jan 22 - 28, 2009 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jan 14, 2009 |
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST WED JAN 14 2009
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 20 - 24 2009
TODAY'S GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING A
GRADUAL LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE WEAKENS ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH MAY DEAMPLIFY ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS,
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE
EAST COAST. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST INTO
ALASKA, WHILE A TROUGH REMAINS STATIONARY IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE
OPERATIONAL GFS-BASED SOLUTIONS REMAIN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERING 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND RAISING 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE NATION. GFS MODEL CONTINUITY HAS IMPROVED, BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MUCH SLOWER IN THE
POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE RELATIVE TO THE OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, A MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS A CHALLENGE SINCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
PREVAIL EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT COULD BECOME SHARPLY COLDER LATER IN THE
PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST DURING THE 5-DAY PERIOD OVER THE
REGION, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ARCTIC AIR MAY SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS BY
DAY 8. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA. AFTER A
PERIOD OF RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE CONUS, THE EXPECTED TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN FOR THE
LOWER 48. HOWEVER, THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND A LACK OF
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE, SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. THEREFORE, NEAR OR
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT AID IN DEVELOPING THE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS SHOULD BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND GREAT BASIN. DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGH, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST. WITH THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
SHIFTING WEST AND NORTH, BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST IN SOUTHEAST
ALASKA AND THE ALASKAN PANHANDLE. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH NEAR THE ALEUTIANS SHOULD BRING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY
7...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...15 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.
MODEL OF THE DAY: ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5,
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF A LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE.
THE 6-10 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON THE AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
THE KLEIN, NEURAL NET, AND ANALOG TEMPERATURE SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL
BLEND, KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND THE CDC
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
THE 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION FORECAST,
THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC PRECIPITATION FORECAST, ANALOG
SPECIFICATIONS BASED ON THE MANUAL BLEND, AND INSPECTION OF DAILY PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 28 2009
FOR WEEK 2, TODAY'S GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE A BROAD TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND A
STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER ALASKA. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS MODEL RUNS ARE
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS THAN THEIR
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. TELECONNECTIONS ON A LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AGREED UPON BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN SOLUTIONS SIGNALS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND FLORIDA DUE TO AN INCREASE IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS, WHILE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE BROAD TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM MAY AFFECT
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA, BUT MOST TOOLS FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PERSISTING ALONG THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEVELOPING
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK MAY
BRING NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF THE PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND OHIO VALLEY. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
TEXAS, THE GULF COAST, AND SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
CONTINUE IN THE ALEUTIANS WITH NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED
ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 40 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO
5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND THEIR
RESPECTIVE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.
THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE PROG IS BASED ON: KLEIN, NEURAL NETWORK, AND ANALOG
SPECIFICATIONS BASED ON THE MANUAL BLEND, THE AUTO BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST,
THE KLEIN SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE GFS-BASED MODELS, THE NAEFS TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT
55N 155W.
THE 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION PROG IS BASED ON: NEURAL NETWORK AND ANALOG
PRECIPITATION SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE MANUAL BLEND, THE NAEFS PRECIPITATION
FORECAST, THE AUTO BLEND PRECIPITATION FORECAST, THE CDC PRECIPITATION TOOL,
AND TELECONNECTIONS ON A POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AT 55N 155W.
FORECASTER: BRAD PUGH
NOTES:
OPERATIONAL CHANGE: AS OF JULY 5 2005 SHADED MAPS HAVE REPLACED THE
CONTOUR-ONLY MAPS ON THE CPC WEB SITE. THE CONTOURED MAPS ARE
STILL AVAILABLE AT THEIR CURRENT FILE NAMES - SO DIRECT-LINKED USERS
ARE NOT AFFECTED. AWIPS GRAPHICS ARE ALSO NOT AFFECTED BY THIS
CHANGE.
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE NARRATIVE DESCRIPTION OF THE FORECAST PATTERNS FOR TEMPERATURE
AND PRECIPITATION FOR BOTH THE 6-10 OR 8-14 DAY PERIODS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. THE STATE TABLES FOR BOTH THE 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY
PERIODS ARE NOW CONTAINED IN THIS MESSAGE...AVAILABLE AS PMDMRD ON
AWIPS.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JANUARY 15.
NEW NOTE EFFECTIVE MAR 16 2004:
THE GLOSSARY FORMERLY FOUND AT THIS LOCATION WILL NO LONGER BE TRANSMITTED AS
PART OF THIS MESSAGE. IF YOU WISH TO SEE THE DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED IN THESE
MESSAGES... PLEASE GO TO THE CPC WEB PAGE AT (USE LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND FOLLOW THE APPROPRIATE LINKS.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19910118 - 19531226 - 19840128 - 19671226 - 19760117
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19840127 - 19910118 - 19760117 - 19880123 - 19670115
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 20 - 24 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A B COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA N B
N TEXAS N B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI N B
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B B MAINE B N
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL N B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JAN 22 - 28 2009
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B B
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B B RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
$$
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