December 12, 2001

Afghanistan:  Continued Dryness Compounds Food Shortage

Current Conditions Summary

Very low cumulative precipitation during critical winter grain establishment will reduce domestic food supply availability in the spring of 2002. Afghanistan enters the winter wheat growing season with very dry conditions and low irrigation reserves.

Poor Start to Season in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is now entering its fourth year of drought. Reduced precipitation, low irrigation supplies, and minimal soil moisture will significantly impact field crop production and limit prospects for pasture land rejuvenation. The winter grain crop is typically planted during October and November, and rainfall during this time period is extremely important for winter grain emergence and establishment for both the irrigated and rainfed crops.  Analysis of Afghanistan's weather and reports of damaged irrigation infrastructure indicate very low potential for the irrigated crop.  Rainfed agricultural production will also decline due to the prolonged dry conditions.  Cumulative precipitation for Afghanistan's field crop regions, for the time period of October 1 through December 12, shows the agricultural zone at only 29 percent of normal. During 2000, a year which experienced a poor crop,  this area received 46 percent of normal rainfall for the same time period. 

Wheat typically comprises 80 percent of Afghanistan's total grain production, and is grown during the winter season and is harvested during April and May.  USDA refers to Central Asian winter crops planted during October-November 2001 as the 2002/03 crop (official estimates will not be available until May 2002).  Average daily temperatures for the agricultural region during the same time period are well above normal, and even slightly higher than last year.  Last season above-normal temperatures in the higher elevations of Afghanistan were associated with reduced snow accumulation and earlier melting of the snow pack, creating ill-timed runoff and reduced irrigation supplies.  Irrigation during the critical grain-fill period in the months of March and April is crucial for good production.

For the last two growing seasons, yields have decreased sharply, a result of the compounding effect of drought, reduced inputs, labor shortages, and irrigation infrastructure deterioration.  Though only relatively small amounts of precipitation are required for germination and emergence, Afghanistan has seen very limited precipitation.  The prospect for the upcoming winter grain season in Afghanistan appear bleak, as many growing areas remain dry resulting in delayed planting.  Planted area will be further decreased by this year's reduced availability of seed, fertilizer, and fuel.  For the 2001/02 (USDA 2002/03) season we anticipate continued decline in irrigated and rainfed planted area, and a decline in yield.

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield  with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at (202) 690-0135.