Volume 10, Number 7, July 2004

Model Parameters and Outbreak Control for SARS

Gerardo Chowell,*† Carlos Castillo-Chavez,‡ Paul W. Fenimore,* Christopher M. Kribs-Zaleta,§ Leon Arriola,* and James M. Hyman*
*Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA; †Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA; ‡Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, USA; and §University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, Texas, USA

Figure 2. Empiric (dots) and stretched exponential estimated probability density function Prob(R₀) = a exp[–(R₀/b)^c] (solid line) (16) of R₀ for the cases of Toronto (a = 0.186, b = 0.803, c = 0.957, after control measures had been implemented), Hong Kong (a = 0.281, b = 1.312, c = 0.858), and Singapore (a = 0.213, b = 1.466, c = 0.883) obtained from our uncertainty analysis. The distribution for the case of perfect isolation (l = 0, a = 0.369, b = 0.473, c = 0.756) is shown as a reference.

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This page last reviewed June 8, 2004

Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal
National Center for Infectious Diseases
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention