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Figure. Probability of attack detection delay for a contagious
agent. Dashed line represents the early approximation  , solid lines the full
solution (where the numbers represent the fraction p of the population
initially infected), and the symbol "nc" stands for noncontagious
agent ( ).
The parameters are as follows: blood donation rate k = 0.05 per person
per year, screening mean window period ω = 3 days, mean duration
of infectiousness 1/r = 14 days, basic reproductive number  , and the initial attack size Np = 500.
Note that the exposed populations are therefore 5,000 and 625 for p =
0.1 and  , respectively.
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