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Volume 11, Number 12, December 2005

Community Epidemiology Framework for Classifying Disease Threats

Andy Fenton* and Amy B. Pedersen†
*Institute of Zoology, London, United Kingdom; and †University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia, USA
 
 
Figure 1.
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Figure 1. Emerging infectious disease framework. A) Schematic diagram of the multihost-pathogen community. B) Possible outcomes for a novel host, H2, after an initial infection by a pathogen endemic in an existing host, H1, where (1) the pathogen is unable to invade H2, (2) the pathogen invades but cannot be sustained within H2, (3) the pathogen invades and persists in H2, and (4) the pathogen invades and drives H2 to extinction. C) Three thresholds separating the 4 possible outcomes: (i) the invasion threshold, (ii) the persistence threshold, and (iii) the host extinction threshold.
 

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This page last reviewed November 2, 2005

Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal
National Center for Infectious Diseases
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention