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Volume 11, Number 12, December 2005 Host Range and Emerging and Reemerging PathogensMark E.J. Woolhouse* and Sonya Gowtage-Sequeria* |
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Figure 3. Expected relationship between outbreak size (as fraction of the population affected) and 2 key epidemiologic parameters: I0 is the number of primary cases of infection introduced into the human population from an external source such as a zoonotic reservoir (increasing in the direction indicated); R0 is the basic reproduction number, a measure of the transmissibility of the infection with the human population (see text). The curves are obtained from a modified version of the Kermack-McKendrick equation and show that expected outbreak size is particularly sensitive to small changes in I0 or R0 when R0 is close to 1. Examples of zoonotic pathogens with R0>1, R0<1 and R0 close to 1 are shown. RIVF, Rift Valley fever virus. (Reprinted with permission from [23]). |
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This page last reviewed November 18, 2005 |
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