This project was funded by the Northeastern Research Station's Global Change Program. The Global Change program consists of various component studies dealing with different aspects of climate change on forests. Our project deals with the distribution and regeneration of tree species following climate change.

DISTRIB model is an application of Regression Tree Analysis technique using importance value of tree species as the response variable (derived from FIA data) and 33 predictor variables (current-climate, soil, topographic and other environmental and landscape variables) at a county resolution. The rule-based model is used to predict the distribution of tree species using current climate. The current climate is then replaced by Global Circulation Model (GCM) derived 2xCO₂ equilibrium climate and the model recalculated to access the change in distribution of the species.

 For further information see Distrib Model

SHIFT is a cellular automata model that predicts more realistic shifts in species distribution (compared to the RTA model) based on colonization probabilities in a fragmented landscape. Developed initally for four species in Ohio, but being expanded for the eastern U.S., the model shows substantial slowing of migration due to low habitat availability.

 For further information see SHIFT Model

Published articles related to the work (alphabetical order):

NOTE: You can access some publications in PDF format

DeHays, D. H., G. L. Jacobson, P. G. Schaber, B. Bongarten, L. R. Iverson, and A. Kieffenbacker-Krall. 2000. Forest responses to changing climate: lessons from the past and uncertainty for the future. Pages 495-540 in R. A. Mickler, R. A. Birdsey, and J. L. Hom, editors. Responses of northern forests to environmental change. Springer-Verlag, Ecological Studies Series vol. 139, New York, NY.

Easterling, M. M., D. R. DeWalle, L. R. Iverson, A. M. Prasad, A. Z. Rose, A. R. Buda, and Y. Cao. 2000. The potential impacts of climate change and variability on forests and forestry in the Mid-Atlantic Region. Climate Research 14:195-206.

Iverson, L. R. and A. M. Prasad. 2001. Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types following climate change. Ecosystems 4:200-215.

Iverson, L. R. and A. M. Prasad. 2001. Potential tree species shifts with five climate change scenarios in the Eastern United States. Forest Ecology and Management 155(1-3).

Iverson, L. R., A. M. Prasad, B. J. Hale, and E. K. Sutherland. 1999. An atlas of current and potential future distributions of common trees of the eastern United States. General Technical Report NE-265. Northeastern Research Station, USDA Forest Service. 245 pp. (Contact Anantha Prasad for a copy)

Iverson, L. R. Prasad A. M. and M. W. Schwartz. 1999. Modeling potential future individual tree-species distributions in the Eastern United States under a climate change scenario: a case study with Pinus virginiana. Ecological Modelling 115:77-93.

Iverson, L. R. and A. M. Prasad. 1998. Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecological Monographs 68:465-485. (Ecological Monographs paper)

McNulty, S. G., J. A. Moore, L. R. Iverson, A. Prasad, R. Abt, B. Smith, G. Sun, M. Gavazzi, J. Bartlett, B. Murray, R. A. Mickler, and J. D. Aber. 2000. Application of linked regional scale growth, biogeography, and economic models for southeastern United States pine forests. World Resources Review 12:298-320.

Prasad, A. M. and L. R. Iverson. 1999-ongoing. A Climate Change Atlas for 80 Forest Tree Species of the Eastern United States [database]. http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/delaware/atlas/index.html, Northeastern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Delaware, Ohio.

Prasad, A. and Iverson, L. R. 1997. Modelling tree distributions in eastern United States using Arc/Info GIS and S-PLUS statistical package. Pages (http://www.esri.com/library/userconf/proc97/PROC97/TO200/PAP200/P200.HTM) in Proceedings, 1997 Arc/Info Conference. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc.  Redlands, California. 

Prasad, A. M. and L. R. Iverson. 2000. Predictive vegetation mapping using a custom built model-chooser: comparison of regression tree analysis and multivariate adaptive regression splines. In. Proceedings CD-ROM. 4th International Conference on Integrating GIS and Environmental Modeling: Problems, Prospects and Research Needs. http://www.colorado.edu/research/cires/banff/upload/159/index.html, Banff, Alberta, Canada.

Schwartz, M. W., L. R. Iverson, and A. M. Prasad. 2001. Predicting the potential future distribution of four tree species in Ohio, USA, using current habitat availability and climatic forcing. Ecosystems 4:568-581.

Sutherland, E. K., B. J. Hale, and D. M. Hix. 2000. Defining species guilds in the Central Hardwood Forest, USA. Plant Ecology 147:1-19.

The results of the DISTRIB Model in the form of maps of potential habitats, forest types and dominant species (current and 5 GCM predicted 2xCO₂), as well as life history attributes, regeneration characteristics and disturbance response for 80 tree species have been compiled into an atlas.

(Contact Anantha Prasad for a copy)

 An online version is available here.

Check out our new downloadable spatial database of IV maps and Little's ranges for 135 tree species in the eastern US!!