The first theme of IHP is concerned with how climatic and human-induced changes will affect the world’s water resources. Specifically, it concentrates on answering the questions of how, when and where human-induced changes, together with weather and climatic extremes, will influence water resources and the sustainability of the biosphere upon which we depend. However, these questions are extremely difficult to answer without better access to improved assessment and analysis technologies.
Those aims are accomplished through a set of focal areas, which include:
The general aims of IHP activities implemented in the framework of the theme 'Global changes and water resources' are:
To answer the questions posed by this theme, it is necessary to expand upon existing assessment and synthesis technologies, as well as develop new ones. To this end, IHP’s first theme focuses on the following two priorities:
It has been difficult, even with current technology, to accurately assess the state of world water resources in the face of global changes brought on by the greenhouse effect and climatic variability, land cover change, industrialization and population growth, and the control of the natural water cycle through hydraulic engineering.
There is no carefully maintained and clear record of global hydrologic change by which to judge the cumulative impact of human activities on the world’s freshwater and coastal support systems, as their highly site- and region-specific physical and water quality attributes make such an assessment extremely difficult. Furthermore, deterioration in routine monitoring networks in many parts of the world does not currently make an accurate assessment possible.
While process-based hydrological research remains successful on a small scale, there is a critical need for synthesis studies of complex drainage basins on continental or global domains. This need has provided the impetus for several major international and national observational and modelling programmes such as the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX), the Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological Cycle project at the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP-BAHC), the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS). The initiatives of Hydrology for the Environment, Life and Policy (HELP) and Flow-Regimes from International Experimental and Network Data (FRIEND) help to clarify the inherent scientific issues at the river basin scale, in connection with the legal and water management aspects and impacts.
Several opportunities exist for analysing the global status of the land phase of the hydrological cycle and associated water resources. The emergence of improved models, high-quality biophysical data sets as well as improved access to remote sensing imagery and data assimilation schemes, provide an opportunity to monitor the state of the hydrological cycle over broad domains and in near-real time. In addition, appropriately cast models can be used with this information to improve understanding of the spatial and temporal aspects of global water resources.