Project Title:
Decision Making Modeling for Theory of Human Error
03.09-2281
Decision Making Modeling for Theory of Human Error
Systems Technology Inc.
13766 S. Hawthorne Blvd
Hawthorne
CA
90250
Clement
Warren F.
NAS2-12540
Amount:
ARC
NAS2-12094
Abstract:
A quantitative theory of human error applicable to monitoring, decisionmaking, information processing, and control operations has been developed. The theory
comprises models for: (1) risk acceptance decision-making in the presence of uncertainty
and divided attention, and (2) operations in which slips, blunders, and control errors
become more prevalent as the level of divided attention is increased. Quantitative
measures such as risk acceptance functions, slip probabilities, and dwell fractions
for control and managerial tasks (to characterize divided attention) are sensitive
indicators of the susceptibility of system config-
ura-tions and procedures to human error.
The theory and measures will address a current critical problem in aeronautics:
the pilot decision to continue or go around in dangerous wind shear situations.
Competing possible content, format, and precision of wind shear advisory information
(ranging from tower communications to on-board precision guidance) will be assessed
using the theory and associated metrics. Exploratory
"Pilot" and "Validation" experiments are proposed to obtain the risk acceptance
and other functions for the most interesting set of advisory possibilities. The
experimental data will also permit refinement of the analytical models to a higher
confidence predictive form.