Drivers over 70 are keeping their licenses longer and driving more than earlier generations, a trend that has led to dire predictions about car accident risks for aging baby boomers.
But new research from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety should ease those fears. It shows that fatal car accidents involving older drivers have actually declined markedly in the past decade.
“It’s not what people had expected to see,” said Anne T. McCartt, senior vice president for research at the insurance institute. “There were some studies, including our own research, that had predicted older driver crashes would become a bigger and bigger problem.”
Compared with middle-aged drivers (age 35 to 54), drivers 75 or older have far higher death rates per mile traveled. (So do drivers under 20.) Death rates jump markedly after age 80. But that does not necessarily mean that older people are worse drivers or that they are far more likely to crash.
Car fatalities involving young people are almost entirely explained by the fact that they have more accidents than experienced drivers. But while crash rates are slightly higher for older people, most of their increased risk for a fatal car accident is explained by the fact that they tend to be more frail. Older drivers are more likely to suffer a severe injury, particularly to the chest, or other medical complications.
But fatalities per capita among older people have decreased 35 percent since 1975 and are now at their lowest level. And while fatal crashes are declining over all, the rates for older driving deaths are falling the fastest. Between 1997 and 2006, the annual decline in fatal crash rates was 0.18 fewer fatal crashes per 100,000 middle-aged licensed drivers. By comparison, the annual decline for drivers age 70 to 74 was 0.55 fatal crashes per 100,000 licensed drivers, and for those over 80 it was 1.33.
Older drivers are also less likely to cause drunken driving accidents. In 2007, just 6 percent of drivers 70 and older who died in crashes had blood-alcohol levels above the legal limit. The figure for fatally injured drivers age 16 to 59 was 41 percent.
The insurance institute is conducting further research to determine why the risks appear to be going down for older drivers. It may be that today’s older drivers are simply in better physical and mental shape than their counterparts a decade ago, so they are not only less likely to make a driving mistake, but also less frail and better able to survive injuries.
It may also be that driving patterns among older adults have changed, leading to more highway driving, which is safer than driving on local roads. Older drivers may be more likely than in the past to wear a seat belt or to drive a safer car.
Research suggests education campaigns have increased awareness about older driving risks.
Researchers from Johns Hopkins recently reported results of the Salisbury Eye Evaluation and Driving Study (Seeds for short), which looked at vision, cognition and health changes among 1,200 licensed drivers age 67 to 87. The study, published in the journal Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Science, found that after a year 1.5 percent of the drivers had given up driving on their own, and 3.4 percent more had voluntarily restricted their driving because of declining vision.
“We’re intent on doing research to try to figure out why we’re seeing this,” Dr. McCartt said. “It’s certainly a possibility that older drivers compared to 10 or 20 years ago are in better condition in various ways.”
Healthy living doesn't happen at the doctor's office. The road to better health is paved with the small decisions we make every day. It's about the choices we make when we buy groceries, drive our cars and hang out with our kids. Join columnist Tara Parker-Pope as she sifts through medical research and expert opinions for practical advice to help readers take control of their health and live well every day. You can reach Ms. Parker-Pope at 
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Having been driving since 1964…from simpler to more sophistigated vehicles…I tend to realise that I am living in times with faster cars on better roads…for the better part. And so I am very concious all the time to be ALERT.
— F. FarrierRegardless of your age, move your seat further back, and learn to drive by extending your legs (instead of sitting close to your pedals and steering wheel). There are many advantages in this technique:
A) You are less likely to get your rib cage compressed and ribs cracked/broken by air bag; Ditto teeth, dentures, eye glasses, and so on.
B) You are better protected by your driver side pillar, and are less likely to get harmed in the side collision;
C) You are less likely to harm your joints, break bones, or damage knees by hitting your pedals;
D) Sitting further aft increases your peripheral vision. This technique also improves the coverage of your back and side mirrors;
E) This also takes less time to transfer your foot from accelerator to the break pedal;
All these little techniques add to safer driving, particularly for older people affected by age-related osteoporosis, reduced reaction time, influence of medication, and other “indignities” of aging.
I am just 5’7”, and drive with my seat fully aft in a large family sedan. Have no problems reaching the pedals. This position also imitates race drivers. They drive that way for good reason, aren’t they?
Konstantin Monastyrsky, author of GutSense.org blog
P.S. Please watch my investigative report “Death By Colonoscopy” on YouTube or my blog. Your lifetime chance of getting harmed by colonoscopy screening, particularly virtual, is higher than your lifetime chance of dying in a car accident (about 1 in 75).
Dr. Michael Eades, the author of Protein Power, wrote yesterday on his blog: “There is more than some truth to it. Many people are starting to question the wisdom of our mad rush to avail ourselves of every diagnostic screening procedure know to man without really considering whether these procedures cause more morbidity and mortality than they prevent.”
P.P.S. Tara, I hope this will not offend your editorial policies. We are both trying to accomplish the same thing: give people useful information, save lives, be it a car accident, cancer screening, etc… Thank you!
— Konstantin MonastyrskyMy vote: cars are safer and people actually wear seatbelts.
— MeganI can give only anecdotal evidence to suggest the reasons for the stats. I’m 53, and my mother is 89, and we both drive.
We are more aware than younger drivers, I think, of just how much damage two tons of steel and glass can do, having lived long enough to see friends left mangled and dead in accidents.
We are also aware of our limitations - if possible, avoid night driving, long distances, driving in extremely bad weather, and unfamiliar roads. If we know in advance we will need to take an unfamiliar or difficult route, we do a “dry run” on a Sunday morning, preferably in good weather, so we don’t get hit by surprise by a sudden lane change, merge or similar challenge.
And, as we age, our friends are dying, moving away, etc., so we have fewer places to go and those tend to be closer.
Perhaps some or all these factors account for safer seniors behind the wheel.
— ACWLiars, Damned Liars, Statisticians.
Ya just gotta be careful with statistics. The simple answer to older drivers is additional and more thorough testing, every year or two, starting at age 64. If they are physically unable to drive safely, yank their license.
Go to any facility that tests drivers. Sooner or later you will see someone come in with a walker. And they’ll pass.
Driving is NOT a right.
— Robert WagnerKonstantin - Thank you for the useful information about moving the seat as far back as possible. I’m 5′0″ and have it jammed up to the steering wheel in order for my legs to reach the pedals. It’s no fun driving while short (DWS).
— ShanaOlder people like me tend to like huge cars for some reason — perhaps because we grew up admiring the land yachts of the 1950s. I myself drive a big-ass Buick Lucerne, and I love it, but at age 70, I’ve decided my next car will be smaller. Smaller cars are easier to steer, park and sneak through narrow spaces. I found that out when my Lucerne was at the dealer’s for service and they gave me a Pontiac G6 as a loaner. It was less plush than my car, but easier (and more fun) to drive. If you’re an older person with slower reflexes and other limitations, it has to be safer to control a small responsive car than a long, heavy one. I think older poeple feel safer in a big car, but the opposite may be true.
— James GerardiIf people of advanced age can drive safely, more power to them….as long as they regularly pass appropriate tests after some reasonable age.
I’m actually more frightened by young and inexperienced drivers. Youngsters in cars and on motorcycles actually race each other–darting around vehicles observing the speed limit– on busy, winding parkways north of New York City. We have a joke (not a very funny one) that they learned to drive playing video games. One false move, or one sudden slow-down, and they/we would become road kill.
— WesleyOlder people now have learned to drive in similar conditions to those they now encounter on the road. Previous generations learned in perhaps less complicated conditions and may not have been able to cope with high speed roads, merging, or multiple lane roads.
— another SusanMy late aunt Vera, who learned to drive on empty country roads, panicked on modern highways and drove more and more slowly. When she had to merge to enter a limited access highway, she crept up to the intersection and stopped, then slowly crept onto the road, instead of speeding up to match speed with the traffic on the road and make merging easier. I can only guess how many accidents she caused. It’s a good thing she stopped driving, because she was a menace.
I can’t help but wonder if the lower accident rate among elderly drivers is due, at least in part, to the fact that (a) they drive more slowly and tentatively and, (b) other drivers compensate for this.
— Al CyoneThis is the kind of reckless use of statistics that causes real harm. The article refers to “people over 65″ etc. without differentiating between that age and my Dad, who is 25 years older and refusing to stop driving at age 90. Last weekend he had his third accident from running a red light, and totaled the car. He turned right around and leased another one with no one looking askance. It’s a miracle that he hasn’t killed anyone yet and my siblings and I spend enormous amounts of time trying to find a way to keep him from driving in an icy, snowy Midwestern state where there is no road test required after you pass the first one at age 16. In my Dad’s case, that was 74 years ago. I wake up at night worrying about one day having to to face the mother of some child that my Dad has run over. Shall I quote her this study to justify why he was behind the wheel?
— molamaIt’s also the result of the children of old people taking away their parents’ car keys.
My mother and her sisters never talked to their father about his (dreadful) driving in the 1960s and 70s, when he was in his late 70s and 80s. I think they just hoped that nothing bad would ever happen as a result of his driving, if they even really thought about it. My siblings and I (in our late 30s and 40s at the time) hounded our father to stop driving about 7 years ago, in his late 70s, somewhat after the time when he should have stopped. My mother, chastened by my father’s and her father’s driving, stopped driving before she was a menace. My husband and I had to threaten and beg his 89-year-old mother NOT to start driving again after a years’-long non-driving interlude, after her husband died. I shudder to think what any of these lovely relatives of mine would do behind the wheel of a car.
— St CherylI have survived many safe years of driving by driving defensively. When on the interstates I try to avoid traveling in packs of vehicles, especially at high speeds. Long ago I followed the rule, don’t drink and drive and try to avoid those that do. My plan is to drive as long as the State License people say that I can drive.
— ChasVery interesting article. I had always assumed that older drivers were a growing menace, in part because of anecdotal evidence from older relatives and in part because of alarmist articles about octogenarians plowing their Buicks into crowded markets. As someone in his 20s who hopes to be driving for the next 60 years, I’m happy to be proven wrong by the evidence.
— ChrisThis article says nothing about how many crashes older people have or are causing and the other people that are being killed or maimed by these crashes as the older drivers are surviving the crash themselves.
FROM TPP — The article compares declines in fatal crash RATES and notes that the problem with older people is not that they crash more. It’s that they get more serious injuries. The data suggest both safer driving and less frailty among today’s elderly drivers.
— Thomas E WiermanTo #5: Your policy would also apply to YOU when you hit 64. How do you think you’ll feel about it then?
I think a slight modification to your suggestion would be better, and that is to make EVERYONE undergo testing every few years. I am in constant shock of and frustration over the driving behavior I see on the roads. I’m under 30yrs. old, and admittedly I’m no saint when it comes to driving, but there are far too many people making really, really stupid driving decisions, no matter their age.
— LGo to any facility that tests drivers. Sooner or later you will see someone come in with a walker. And they’ll pass.
— Robert Wagner
Are you implying that using a walker means one is unable to drive safely? If so, you are clueless about the variety of physical limitations that involve walkers.
Possibly one reason that older drivers are safer is that we’re not gabbing away on cell phones.
— katOld age + drivers license is not automatically a formula for a deadly crash.
I personally know older drivers who are very competent but they’ve simply chosen to drive less often, and they tend to confine their driving to the daylight hours. And we don’t know how many older drivers have just voluntarily stopped driving altogether - without coercion from their relatives or someone taking their car keys away. Maybe this would partially account for what the insurance study is showing?
— PerrinI am not surprised at the results presented in the article. It is logical that a 20 year old’s body is much more likely to survive an accident than that of an 85 year old.
— observer 31And for those of you who generalize how bad a driver someone is just based on his/her age, and bring up your anecdotal “evidence” : I am 73 and just had an involved series of tests (lasting almost half an hour) in which reaction time and reflex played a large part. The person who conducted a test mentioned how excellent my reaction time and reflexes were. Note that she did not say ” for your age “, but meant it in the absolute sense.
I’d be willing to bet drivers over age 65 are less prone to engage in the highly distracting practice of talking on their cell phone while driving. This alone would give them a significant advantage over the preponderance of other drivers on the road
FROM TPP — Interesting point. That does make sense.
— misanthropeMr. Wagner’s comments on people with walkers driving is offensive. Many people with disabilities drive, including the deaf (who have an excellent safety record because sign language improves peripheral and other vision) and those who lack legs and use hand controls. On the other hand, an awful lot of younger people drive impaired in many more serious ways due to substance use, distraction as a result of myriad young-adult/middle-adult stressors, cell phone misuse, etc. 16-year old drivers have far swifter reflexes but lack experience. Older people have slower reflexes and more experience. Studies on pilots at Methodist College in Fayetteville showed that the experience of older pilots equalized the swifter responses but less experience of younger ones. If 64 year olds need exams every two years, so do 18 year old and 35 year olds. I suspect your attitudes will reward you with a miserable old age because you will feel old and be a pain in the southern regions to all around you.
— Huey WhiteWe should outlaw SUVs on American roads after a phse-out period. These vehicles are unstable on high speed turns and with sudden braking. Younger drivers gain a false sense of security when driving them, and this leads to aggressive driving. Unforntunately the non-SUV drivers who get hit by them suffer grave consequences. I was nearly hit recently by a 20 year old in a Ford Explorer. The cops estimated he was going 50# on a two lane highway in fog conditions. He lost control on braking and ended up in someone’s back yard. Fortunately no one was hurt, although his SUV was a total. The driver and I both witnessed how unstable SUVs can be on braking, particularly when in the hands of inexperienced drivers. I hope his dad’s insurance premium skyrocketed.
— porkyIs anyone bothered by the blinding intensity on oncoming halogen headlights??
— johnCThere has been another societal shift that isn’t mentioned in your article. As with my family and many friends, our elder parents “moved to town”. First it was the senior apartment building, then assisted living. In both cases, so many services are provided on site, the need for a car became minimal, to the point that the car sat deteriorating in the parking lot. As children to these elders, you pick them up in your car, take them shopping, out to dinner or off for a day trip to the lake.
— LouiseNone of this was available for my grandparents.
Without getting into the logistics of this, I strongly feel that everyone, regardless of age, should be required to requalify for a license at frequent, say, 5-year intervals. The written portion should require individuals to acknowledge the hazards of doing things (eg, cell phone, makeup, eating, reading) while driving. The road portion would prove on a case-by-case basis whether experience is trumping reflexes, or vice versa.
I feel strongly about not categorically dismissing the elderly, but for as many fine older drivers that I know, I also know plenty who have no business being behind the wheel. So impartial tests that don’t require a family member to revoke an elder’s driving privilege are the equitable solution.
— Andrew