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El Niño: Pumping Up or Fizzling Out?
November 15, 2004
Recent sea-level height data from the U.S./France Jason altimetric satellite during a
10-day cycle ending November 15, 2004, show that the central equatorial Pacific continues
to exhibit an area of higher-than-normal sea surface heights (warmer-than-normal sea
surface temperatures) between 180 degrees West and 130 degrees West. This feature, should
it continue and spread eastward through November and December, could elevate the present
weak El Niño episode to a moderate or stronger event. Previous warm Kelvin waves over
the past several months, however, have dissipated. Scientists will continue to monitor
the Pacific closely for further signs of El Niño intensity and development.
The image shows a red area in the central equatorial Pacific that is about 10
centimeters (4 inches) above normal. These regions contrast with the Gulf of Alaska,
where lower-than-normal sea levels (blue areas) continue that are between 5 and 13
centimeters (2 and 5 inches) below normal. Along the equator, the red sea surface
heights equate to sea surface temperature departures greater than one degree Celsius
(two degrees Fahrenheit).
These images show sea surface height anomalies with the seasonal cycle (the effects
of summer, fall, winter, and spring) removed. The differences between what we see and
what is normal for different times and regions are called anomalies, or residuals. When
oceanographers and climatologists view these "anomalies" they can identify unusual
patterns and can tell us how heat is being stored in the ocean to influence future
planetary climate events. Each image is a 10-day average of data, ending on the date
indicated.
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