National Hazards Analysis

In the aftermath of the levee failures and flooding associated with Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, NISAC was tasked by the Assistant Secretary for Infrastructure Protection (ASIP) with the development of a systematic evaluation of the United States to identify scenarios with high likelihood and with severe consequences.  The National Hazards Analysis is a long-term task, part of the all-hazards approach NISAC is taking to identify and quantify national-level infrastructure risks.  The goal of this task is to identify situations with devastating potential which could cause the loss of a metropolitan area, critical system, or infrastructure network.
In the initial scoping analysis, we defined a wide variety of categorizations of potentially devastating conditions / events. 

Scope of Investigation
The scoping analysis focused on identifying a smaller set of natural, accidental and malevolent events with relatively high likelihood of occurring in the next several decades and the potential to cause relatively severe consequences with respect to injury and loss of life, economic impact, loss of trust in government, and loss of basic services.
In the scoping evaluation, analysts examined infrastructures and identified potential scenarios in the areas of:

• Agriculture/Food
• Banking and Finance
• Dams
• Economics
• Emergency Response
• Energy
• Natural Disasters
• Public Health
• Telecommunications
• Transportation

In 2006, NISAC analysts evaluated the potential effectiveness of stockpiles in mitigating the consequences of some of the hazards identified in the scoping analysis.  These analyses will provide information that will improve future fast-turnaround analyses, by providing a better understanding of asset disruption impacts and the effectiveness of mitigation measures in reducing those impacts.  Analysis included:

• Electric Power Transformers: Does Their Vulnerability Pose a Threat to the US Power Grid?
  • Power transformers have long been identified as a potential weak link in the electrical power network. This analysis evaluated the loss of power transformers at the system level to understand how the electric power industry could respond at a national scale to mitigate damage to large transformers that could be caused by any hazard.
• The North American Natural Gas Infrastructure: How Vulnerable is it to Natural Disasters, What are the Options for Consequence Mitigation?
  • The impact of the 2005 hurricane season on the US’ energy infrastructure called into question the vulnerability of the Natural Gas Infrastructure System to natural disasters, typified by hurricanes and earthquakes. Natural gas is a key energy source for the US, comprising about 24% of all energy consumed. This analysis of the US Natural Gas Infrastructure System examined the impacts of potential vulnerabilities, and evaluated the efficacy of establishing a Natural Gas Strategic Reserve<