Uranium Supplies Are Sufficient To Power Reactors Worldwide Through 2030 

Current uranium reserves should be adequate to meet additional demand as worldwide installed nuclear capacity increases to the 498 gigawatts in 2030 projected in the IEO2008 reference case. According to results from the demand model used by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, annual uranium requirements are expected to grow from 68,000 metric tons per year in 2005 to 96,000 metric tons per year in 2030.^a The cumulative demand for uranium to meet the projected increase in nuclear electricity generation from 2005 to 2030 would be 2.1 million metric tons.^b,c 

Uranium resources are divided into four groups, based on the confidence of supply estimation. Reasonably assured resources (RAR) are known uranium deposits that can be recovered with current mining technologies and methods. Inferred resources are uranium deposits that are believed to exist, based on direct geological evidence, but have not been studied as thoroughly as RAR. Resources could be expanded even further with prognosticated resources—uranium deposits expected to exist on the basis of indirect evidence—and speculative resources thought to exist on the basis of geological extrapolations.^d The table below shows the two groups of worldwide uranium reserves estimated with the highest confidence, at various production cost levels. 

Even in the lowest cost tier, less than $40 per kilogram, total uranium reserves should be sufficient to meet the requirements for projected nuclear capacity in 2030. In addition, with the spot price of uranium oxide having risen from $14.1 per kilogram in January 2001 to $163.1 per kilogram (equivalent to $192.4 per kilogram of uranium) during the week of March 7, 2008, and expected to remain high, it seems unlikely that production costs will hamper the future supply of uranium.^e 

Assuming that the available uranium resources will be adequate, more uranium production will be needed to ensure the annual delivery of 96,000 metric tons. In recent years, 40 to 50 percent of the world’s uranium supply has come from secondary sources, including stockpiles of uranium, reprocessed spent fuel, and re-enriched depleted uranium tails.^f Those secondary sources are expected to decline over the next 5 years, as the “Megatons to Megawatts” program, which converts decommissioned Russian warheads into commercial fuel, concludes in 2013. Primary production, which provided 40,263 metric tons of uranium in 2004, will have to be increased further to make up for diminishing secondary sources and increasing demand.^g 

The relatively high price of uranium already is leading to increased output. New mines in Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Brazil, and India are expected to add 30,000 metric tons of production capacity by 2010.^h The reference case used by the World Nuclear Association projects the addition of 30,000 metric tons of supply by 2015, before uranium mining slowly decreases to 90 percent of its peak 2015 level in 2030.ⁱ Also, the uranium supply can be extended further by worldwide recycling of spent fuel and the use of breeder reactors. 

^aInternational Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006 (Paris, France, November 2006), p. 377, web site www.iea.org/textbase/ nppdf/free/2006/weo2006.pdf. 

^bInternational Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 379. 

^cAssuming that 4 metric tons of uranium is required to fuel 1 million watts of nuclear capacity. 

^dInternational Atomic Energy Agency, Analysis of Uranium Supply to 2050 (Vienna, Austria, May 2001), pp. 2-3, web site www-pub.iaea. org/MTCD/publications/PDF/Pub1104_scr.pdf. 

^eTradeTech Uranium.Info Web Site, “Uranium Spot Price Indicator,” web site www.uranium.info. 

^fInternational Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 377. 

^gInternational Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 380. 

^hY. Sokolov, “Uranium Resources: Plenty To Sustain Growth of Nuclear Power,” Statements of the Deputy Directors General (Vienna, Austria, June 1, 2006), web site www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Statements/DDGs/2006/sokolov01062006.html. 

ⁱWorld Nuclear Association, The Global Nuclear Fuel Market: Supply and Demand 2007-2030 (London, UK, 2007), p. 112, web site www. world-nuclear.org/reference/publications.html.