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National Situation Update: Saturday, October 11, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
A winter storm will produce snow in parts of Montana, central and eastern Idaho and Wyoming. Strong winds in southwest Wyoming may cause blizzard conditions and up to 3-foot drifts.  Snowfall totals across the northern Rockies could reach 2 to 3 feet while the snowfall on the high Plains could measure 6 to 12 inches.  At higher elevations, the Black Hills Plains could exceed 1-foot.  Strong winds will continue across northern Arizona and northwest New Mexico where gusts could peak between 60 and 80 mph.  Moisture from Hurricane Norbert will enhance rainfall and thunderstorms across southeast Arizona, New Mexico and parts of Colorado.  High pressure will build into Nevada and Utah by late Sunday.  Strong Santa Ana winds could develop across parts of Southern California through Tuesday.  As these strong, low-humidity, offshore winds funnel through the mountain passes, canyons and valleys, the fire danger will be extremely high.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 6:00 p.m. PDT today, due to dry conditions in the San Francisco Bay area, San Joaquin Valley and portions of the desert southwest.

Midwest:
A frontal system will produce snow and rain in the western Dakotas, rain in the eastern Dakotas and thunderstorms from Minnesota to Kansas.  By tomorrow snow accumulations of over 1-foot is possible in the South Dakota Black Hills.  Tomorrow, heavy rain and thunderstorms will extend from the Upper Midwest to Missouri.  Moisture from Norbert will enhance the rainfall and a zone from Kansas to western Iowa could pick up 1 to 4 inches of rain.

South:
The low pressure just off the southeast coast is forecast to gradually weaken, confining showers and thunderstorms to the immediate southeast coast, southern Georgia and Florida.  A cold front will move into the Southern High Plains this weekend, sparking thunderstorms across western Oklahoma and western Texas. Some of the thunderstorms will contain heavy downpours as moisture from Norbert streams across northern Mexico and into the Southern High Plains.  Also, a few severe thunderstorms are possible with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Northeast:
Under high pressure, the region will be generally dry. (NOAA; National Weather Service; Various Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
The large area of disturbed weather located between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles is gradually becoming better organized.  A tropical depression could form during the next day or two as the system moves slowly west-northwestward.

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Norbert
At 05:00 am EDT the center of Hurricane Norbert was about 145 miles west-southwest of La Paz, Mexico.  Norbert is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph.  This general motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the northeast with some increase in forward speed.  Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph with higher gusts.  Norbert is now  a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.  Norbert is forecast to make landfall along the west coast of the southern Baja California, Mexico Peninsula late this morning.  The hurricane could produce rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over portions of the southwestern U.S. beginning tonight.

Tropical Storm Odile
At 05:00 am EDT the center of Tropical Storm Odile was about 50 miles west-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.  Movement is toward the northwest near 14 mph.  A general west-northwestward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.  A continued motion to the northwest or west-northwest is expected over the next 24 hours with a turn to the west at a slower speed expected on Sunday.  Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours; Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.  Odile could become a hurricane later today or tomorrow. 

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

• National Fire Activity as of Friday, October 10, 2008:
• National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 1
• Initial attack activity: Light (51 new fires)
• New large fires: 2
• Uncontained large fires: 2
• Large fires contained: 10
• States with large fires: CA (2), OR and UT (NIFC)
  

Disaster Declaration Activity

Texas:  Amendment No. 7, FEMA-1791-DR, dated October 8, 2008, is amended to reflect that the President amended the cost-share authorizing Federal funds for assistance Categories A and B (including Direct Federal Assistance) at 100 percent of the total eligible costs for an additional 30 days beyond the previous 14-day period, retroactive to the date of the Major Disaster Declaration.  This cost share is effective as of the date of the President's Major Disaster Declaration.

Texas:  Amendment No. 8, FEMA-1791-DR dated October 9, 2008 is amended to reflect the following additions:  Greg, Harrison, Rusk, and Smith Counties for Individual Assistance; Shelby County for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance; and Angelina, Brazoria, Fort Bend, Hardin, Newton, Polk, and Tyler Counties for Public Assistance [Categories C-G] (already designated for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance for Categories A and B and Direct Federal Assistance).

Louisiana:  Amendment No. 3, FEMA-1792-DR dated October 8, 2008 is amended to reflect that the President amended the cost-share authorizing Federal funds for assistance and authorizes Categories A and B, including Direct Federal Assistance, at 100 percent of the total eligible costs for a 44-day period retroactive to the date of the Major Disaster Declaration.  This cost share is effective as of the date of the President's Major Disaster Declaration.

Louisiana:  Amendment No. 4, FEMA-1792-DR dated October 10, 2008, is amended to reflect the following additions:  Livingston, Orleans, St. Martin, and Tangipahoa Parishes for Individual Assistance; Allen and St. Tammany Parishes for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance; Bienville, Concordia, De Soto, Red River, St. Bernard, St. Charles, St. John the Baptist, and Union Parishes for Public Assistance; and Acadia, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Iberia, Jefferson, Jefferson Davis, Lafourche, Plaquemines, Sabine, St. Mary, Terrebonne, Vermilion, and Vernon Parishes for Public Assistance [Categories C-G] (already designated for Individual Assistance and Public Assistance for Categories A and B, including Direct Federal Assistance).  (FEMA HQ)