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National Situation Update: Friday, October 10, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

West:
An early winter storm will produce snow or a rain/snow mix in the lower elevations from the Oregon Cascades and Sierras to Montana and much of Wyoming. Winter storm watches and warnings are in effect for parts of Montana and Wyoming. One to two feet of snow, with locally higher amounts, may fall in some mountain locations by the end of the weekend.  Northerly winds, gusting to 60 mph, are forecast for southern California by this evening. The combination of strong winds and low humidity will create a period of critical fire weather conditions in the valleys and foothills until Saturday. Moisture from Hurricane Norbert (in the eastern Pacific) will enhance thunderstorms across southeast Arizona, New Mexico and eastern Colorado.  As a strong high pressure builds into the Great Basin on Sunday, strong gusty Santa Ana winds could develop across parts of Southern California through Monday.
Midwest:
Cold air and moisture from the western storm will move into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Rain may mix with or change to wet snow over the western Dakotas. A winter storm watch is already in effect for westernmost South Dakota and southwestern North Dakota.  Tomorrow, heavy rain and thunderstorms will extend from the Upper Midwest to Missouri.  Moisture from Hurricane Norbert will enhance the rainfall from northeast Kansas to southeast Minnesota picking up 3 to 6 inches of rain.
South:
An upper level low will produce precipitation, including thunderstorms, over Florida, eastern Georgia and the Carolinas.  Showers and thunderstorms will increase this weekend across western Oklahoma and western Texas. The thunderstorms have the potential to produce localized flooding as moisture from Hurricane Norbert streams into the southern High Plains.
Northeast:
High pressure over the region will result in generally dry conditions, only northern Maine will see any precipitation. (NOAA; National Weather Service; Various Media Sources)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
A broad trough of low pressure, extending from the Windward Islands northeastward into the Atlantic, is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development.  A second area of disturbed weather has increased in coverage about 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde islands.  Additional development of the system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward.

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Norbert
At 5:00 pm EDT, the center of Hurricane Norbert was about 315 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph.  A gradual turn toward the north to north-northeast is expected with some increase in forward speed.  Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph with higher gusts.  Hurricane Norbert is now a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  No significant change in strength is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours.

Tropical Storm Odile
At 5:00 pm EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Odile was about 105 miles south of Puerto Angel, Mexico moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph. This general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.  On this forecast track the center of the storm should move parallel to, but offshore of, the Pacific Coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the center.

Western Pacific:
No current tropical cyclone warnings. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

• National Fire Activity as of Thursday, October 09, 2008:
• National Wildfire Preparedness Level: 1
• Initial attack activity: Light (106 new fires)
• New large fires: 0
• Uncontained large fires: 2
• Large fires contained: 0
• States with large fires: CA, OR (NIFC)
  

Disaster Declaration Activity

On October 9, 2008, the President signed Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1802-DR-Kentucky as a result of a Severe Wind Storm, associated with Tropical Depression Ike that occurred September 14 - 15, 2008.  Public Assistance for 33 counties and Hazard Mitigation commonwealth-wide authorized.

On October 9, 2008, the President signed Major Disaster Declaration FEMA-1803-DR-Oklahoma as a result of Severe Storms, Tornadoes and Flooding that occurred September 12 - 19, 2008.  Public Assistance for 10 counties and Hazard Mitigation statewide authorized.  (FEMA HQ)