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National Situation Update: Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

South
Thunderstorms with heavy rain at times will extend from northern Alabama through northern Georgia, and into the Carolinas.  The weather system will move slowly eastward by Thursday, October 8.
Midwest
On Wednesday morning, some rainfall will move slowly though the Midwest and Great Lakes region, and into eastern Kentucky, Ohio and West Virginia during the afternoon.
Northeast
Showers will move across the western regions of the Northeast by Wednesday evening and spread throughout the Northeast on Thursday as a weak cold front advances.
West
Mostly calm weather occurs across the West, with just a few showers expected over the Northwest and northern Rockies.  A developing weather pattern over the weekend could precipitate the season's first significant Santa Ana wind event in Southern California by Sunday, October 11. (NOAA; National Weather Service; Various Media Sources)

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike

FEMA Region VI Update
As of October 7, 2008, nearly all petroleum pipelines had resumed operations.  EPA reports 581,874 barrels per day of the Gulf's crude production remains shut-in.  This is equivalent to 44.8% of the Gulf's crude oil production.  The Gulf's natural gas production shut-in is 2,860 million cubic feet per day, which equates to 38.7 percent of the Gulf's gas production.  All 116 rigs operating in the region are manned.

Federal priorities include the following:  Ensure the safety of all deployed personnel, support emergency shelters, implementation of the Joint State-Federal housing plan, public infrastructure restoration, and continuation of debris removal. (FEMA-DAD)

Louisiana
GOSHEP remains activated at Level III (Emergency Operations).

The National Shelter System (NSS) reports three shelters remain open with a population of 91.  Nine MDRCs / MRICs and ten DRCs are open for registration intake. (FEMA-DAD)

Texas
There are 47 confirmed fatalities.

The State Emergency Operations Center remains activated at Level I (Emergency Conditions).

The NSS reports ten shelters remain open with a population of 1,339.  Twenty-eight MDRCs / MRICs and sixteen DRCs are open for registration intake. (FEMA-DAD)

As of October 6, there are no current power outages being reported.  CenterPoint Energy reports it has restored electricity to all customers that can receive power.

Twenty-four Public Assistance (PA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) have been completed, with six PA PDAs scheduled or in progress.  Six Individual Assistance (IA) PDAs have been completed, with one IA PDA scheduled.

As of October 7, some operational limitations still exist on some critical waterways.  These include draft restrictions in Galveston and Texas City, TX waterways. (TX JFO, SitRep #25 Oct 7)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report.(FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Weather Outlook
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Norbert
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Norbert was located about 470 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Norbert is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph. This motion is expected to continue today with a gradual turn to the north on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have `Simpson scale.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115
miles.

Tropical Weather Outlook
92E - A slow-moving area of low pressure located about 90 miles southwest of the coast of Nicaragua is currently producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.  Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation in this area during the next day or two as the system moves slowly west-northwestward.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories.(NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Tuesday, October 7, 2008 was light with 43 new fires.  The National Wildfire Preparedness Level is 1.  There were two new large fires reported and one large fire contained.  Five uncontained large fires continue in Kentucky, California, and Oregon.
Fire Weather:  A high pressure ridge will build over the West with warmer and drier conditions.  Offshore flow will develop across southern California, while relative humidity will gradually increase in the Southeast.(NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

The Governor of Missouri requested a major disaster declaration as a result of severe storms, flooding, and flashfloods during the period of September 11-24, 2008.  The Governor is specifically requesting IA for 24 counties and the independent City of St. Louis, PA for 47 counties, and Hazard Mitigation statewide. (FEMA HQ)