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National Situation Update: Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED).

Significant National Weather

Northeast
Frost and freeze advisories remain in effect from Pennsylvania north to Vermont through Wednesday morning.  City temperatures should drop into the lower 40s to near 50 degrees by morning.  The region will be sunny but cold today. 
Midwest
Rain and showers are forecast from Minnesota and Wisconsin to Missouri and Illinois.  A few thundershowers are also possible in southern sections of Missouri and Illinois Tuesday afternoon and evening.
South
Heavy rain, hail and damaging winds are possible in eastern Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, western Mississippi and western Tennessee.  Florida is expecting a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. 
West
A storm system moves into the Northwest tonight bringing rain and showers from Idaho west to Washington and Oregon, and into Montana and the northern Rockies during the day Tuesday.  A few inches of snow are possible overnight in the Cascades, at levels around 3,500 feet.  (NOAA, National Weather Service, Various Media Sources)

Federal / State Response for Hurricane Ike

FEMA Region VI Update
Federal Priorities include the following: Ensure the safety of all deployed personnel, support facilities, housing, public infrastructure restoration, and debris management.

As of Oct 6, 2008, nearly all petroleum pipelines had resumed operations.  DOE reports 600,679 barrels per day (46.2 percent capacity out) of the Gulf's crude oil production remains shut-in:  This is equivalent to 46.2 percent of the Gulf's crude production.  Gulf natural gas production shut-in is 3,001 million cubic feet per day, which is equivalent to 40.6 of the Gulf's gas production.  94 out of 694 Gulf production platforms remain evacuated, which is 13.5 percent of the platforms.

There were 39 major natural gas processing plants in the path of Hurricane Ike.  As of October 6, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has confirmed 5 plants remain shut down, which include those plants still impacted from Gustav.  In addition, EIA reports 30 plants have resumed operations at reduced or normal levels.  Reportedly, three plants have the capability to restart once upstream gas flow are sufficient.

As of October 6, some operational limitations still existed on some critical waterways.  These included draft restrictions in Galveston and Texas City, TX . (TX JFO, SitRep #24 Oct 4; TX JFO IAP, Oct 6; DOE SitRep #23 Oct 6)

Louisiana
LA Department of Natural Resources reported 70,714 barrels per day of the normal LA oil production has been restored.  This equates to 45 percent restoration.  The restored natural gas production estimate is 749 million cubic feet per day or 46 percent of the daily natural gas production capacity.

As of October 5, over 5 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was released or delivered due to hurricanes Gustav and Ike.

Operational restrictions still exist on Lake Charles, LA waterways, and nighttime draft restrictions on portions of the Lower Mississippi River.

GOSHEP remains activated at Level III (Emergency Operations).

The National Shelter System (NSS) reports three shelters remain open with a population of 136.  Ten MDRCs / MRICs and ten DRCs are open for registration intake.

Texas
The State Emergency Operations Center (SEOC) remains activated at Level I, 24/7.

CenterPoint reports electricity has been restored to all customers that can receive power.  Currently, CenterPoint is working to restore power to customer locations that sustained damage.

The National Shelter System (NSS) reports eleven shelters remain open with a population of 1,398.  Eight MDRCs / MRICs and sixteen DRCs are open for registration intake.

Fourteen Public Assistance (PA) Preliminary Damage Assessments (PDAs) have been completed, with twelve PA PDAs scheduled. Six Individual Assistance (IA) PDAs have been completed, with one IA PDA scheduled.  IA PDAs will be completed later today, October 7 (FEMA Region VI). (NSS Report, Oct 6; FEMA HQ; TX JFO, SitRep #24 Oct 4; TX JFO IAP, Oct 6; DOE SitRep #23 Oct 6; DOE, SitRep #23, Oct 6; FEMA-DAD)

Puerto Rico Flooding

FEMA Region II Update
A Disaster Recovery Center opened in the Municipality of Humacao.  Four shelters remain open with a total population of 42. (PR JFO SitRep #12 Oct 6)

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

No new activity to report. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean:
Tropical Storm Marco
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Marco was located about 105 miles southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico.  Marco is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph.  On this forecast track the center of Marco should be very near the coast of Mexico by late this morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts.  Some strengthening is possible this morning, and Marco could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the coast.

Eastern Pacific:
Hurricane Norbert
At 5:00 a.m. EDT, the center of Hurricane Norbert was located about 315 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja, California, moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph.  This general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days.  Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.  Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles from the center.  Norbert becomes the seventh hurricane of the east Pacific.

Tropical Weather Outlook
92E - The area of low pressure located about 100 miles south of the coast of El Salvador continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity well to west of the center of circulation.
Upper-level winds could become a little more favorable for development during the next couple of days and this system still has the potential to become a tropical depression as it remains nearly stationary.

Western Pacific:
No tropical cyclone activity affecting United States Territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

National Fire Activity as of Monday, October 6, 2008 was light with 24 new fires.  The National Wildfire Preparedness Level is 2.  There were no new large fires reported or contained.  Four uncontained large fires continue in California and Oregon. 

Fire Weather:  A high pressure ridge will build over the West with warmer and drier conditions.  Offshore flow will develop across southern California, while relative humidity will gradually increase in the Southeast. (NIFC)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)