Annual Reports
Policy Studiesthe recession in perspective
The economy is in recession. But how bad is it? How does this recession compare to previous recessions?
Mouse over the chart and select individual recessions to compare.
Notes:
1. Employment is nonfarm payroll employment calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. Open data table for data on individual recessions.
Mouse over the chart and select individual recessions to compare.
Notes:
1. Output is gross domestic product adjusted for inflation as calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2. Open data table for data on individual recessions.
* Mildest, median, and harshest lines reflect the smallest, median, and largest declines as of each month; they do not reflect specific individual recessions.
Notes:
1. Employment is nonfarm payroll employment calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. Postwar recessions include the 10 recessions as defined by the NBER that started between 1946 and 2006.
3. Open data table to see how the mildest, median and harshest lines are calculated, and for data on individual recessions.
* Mildest, median, and harshest lines reflect the smallest, median, and largest declines as of each quarter; they do not reflect specific individual recessions.
Notes:
1. Output is gross domestic product adjusted for inflation as calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2. Postwar recessions include the 10 recessions as defined by the NBER that started between 1946 and 2006.
3. Open data table to see how the mildest, median and harshest lines are calculated, and for data on individual recessions.
Note:
Chart shows percentage decline in nonfarm employment 16 months after the start of each recession. This reflects the most recent data available for employment in the current recession.
Notes:
1. The largest percentage decline for the current recession has yet to be determined: thus, the ? for the current recession.
2. Individual data series often peak before or after the official NBER start of a recession. For example, employment in the 1973 recession rose 0.9 percent before falling 2.8 percent from the employment peak.
Note:
Chart shows percentage decline in real gross domestic product 5 quarters after the start of each recession. This reflects the most recent data available for output in the current recession.
Note: The largest percentage decline for the current recession has yet to be determined: thus, the ? for the current recession.
Employment is nonfarm payroll employment calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Notes:
1. Data from 1990 to the present are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data prior to 1990 are seasonally adjusted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis using the Census Bureau's X11 procedure.
2. BLS (www.bls.gov) data on state employment are available for all states and all postwar recessions with the following exceptions: Alaska and Hawaii data for the 1948, 1953, and 1957 recessions; Michigan data for the 1948 and 1953 recessions; and Minnesota data for the 1948 recession.
Background on Recession in Perspective
This page places the current economic downturn into historical (post-WWII) perspective. It compares output and employment changes during the present recession with the same data for the 10 previous recessions that have occurred since 1946.
This page provides a current assessment of “how bad" the recession is relative to past recessions. It will be updated as new data are released. This page does not provide forecasts, and the information should not be interpreted as such.
The following charts provide information about both the length and depth of recessions.
Post-WWII Recessions
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research determines the beginning and ending dates of U.S. recessions. http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
It has determined that the U.S. economy experienced 10 recessions from 1946 through 2006. The committee determined that the current recession began in December 2007.
http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.html
Length of Recessions
The 10 previous postwar recessions have ranged in length from 6 months to 16 months, averaging about 10 1/2 months. The current recession has surely surpassed the postwar average, but its total length will only be known when the Business Cycle Dating Committee retrospectively determines the final month of the recession.
Depth of Recessions
The severity of a recession is determined in part by its length; perhaps even more important is the magnitude of the decline in economic activity. That is, how much do employment and output fall?
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