Finance and Economics Discussion Series
		2003 FEDS papers FEDS ordering information

2003-68 (December )
Testing Conflicts of Interest at Bond Rating Agencies with Market Anticipation: Evidence that Reputation Incentives Dominate
Daniel M. Covitz and Paul Harrison
Abstract | Full paper (559 KB PDF)

2003-67 (December)
Optimal Monetary Policy in a Micro-founded Model with Parameter Uncertainty
Takeshi Kimura and Takushi Kurozumi
Abstract | Full paper (878 KB PDF)

2003-66 (December)
A Utility-Based Welfare Criterion in a Model with Endogenous Capital Accumulation
Rochelle M. Edge
Abstract | Full paper (331 KB PDF)

2003-65 (December)
The Responses of Wages and Prices to Technology Shocks
Rochelle M. Edge, Thomas Laubach, and John C. Williams
Abstract | Full paper (273 KB PDF)

2003-64 (December)
The GSE Implicit Subsidy and Value of Government Ambiguity
Wayne Passmore
Abstract | Full paper (799 KB PDF)

2003-63 (December)
Cash Balance Pension Plan Conversions and the New Economy
Julia Lynn Coronado and Phillip C. Copeland
Abstract | Full paper (278 KB PDF)

2003-62 (December)
Risk-based Pricing of Interest Rates in Household Loan Markets
Wendy Edelberg
Abstract | Full paper (2514 KB PDF)

2003-61 (December)
Calculating and Using Second Order Accurate Solutions of Discrete Time Dynamic Equilibrium Models
Jinill Kim, Sunghyun Kim, Ernst Schaumburg, and Christopher A. Sims
Abstract | Full paper (166 KB PDF)

2003-60 (December)
Asset Prices and Rents in a GE Model with Imperfect Competition
Pierre Lafourcade
Abstract | Full paper (403 KB PDF)

2003-59 (November )
Forecasting Exogenous Fiscal Variables in the United States
Darrel Cohen and Glenn Follette
Abstract | Full paper (802 KB PDF)

2003-58 (November)
Getting Bad News Out Early: Does it Really Help Stock Prices?
Chris Downing and Steve Sharpe
Abstract | Full paper (2051 KB PDF)

2003-57 (November)
What If Welfare Had No Work Requirements? The Age of Youngest Child Exemption and the Rise in Employment of Single Mothers
Jonathan F. Pingle
Abstract | Full paper (994 KB PDF)

2003-56 (November)
The Effect of Restructuring on Unemployment
Andrew Figura
Abstract | Full paper (368 KB PDF)

2003-55 (November)
Central Bank Talk: Does It Matter and Why?
Donald L. Kohn and Brian P. Sack
Abstract | Full paper (276 KB PDF)

2003-54 (November)
Capital Flows Among the G-7 Nations: A Demographic Perspective
Michael Feroli
Abstract | Full paper (237 KB PDF)

2003-53 (November)
Bank Risk Ratings and the Pricing of Agricultural Loans
Nick Walraven and Peter Barry
Abstract | Full paper (137 KB PDF)

2003-52 (November)
Estimating the Worldwide Volume of Counterfeit U.S. Currency: Data and Extrapolation
Ruth Judson and Richard Porter
Abstract | Full paper (429 KB PDF)

2003-51 (November )
Welfare Effects of Tax Policy in Open Economies: Stabilization and Cooperation
Jinill Kim and Sunghyun Henry Kim
Abstract | Full paper (400 KB PDF)

2003-50 (November)
The Excess Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models
Refet S. Gurkaynak, Brian Sack, and Eric Swanson
Abstract | Full paper (400 KB PDF)

2003-49 (September )
Does Mortgage Hedging Amplify Movements in Long-term Interest Rates?
Roberto Perli and Brian Sack
Abstract | Full paper (241 KB PDF)

2003-48 (September)
Modeling Aggregate Investment: A Fundamentalist Approach
John M. Roberts
Abstract | Full paper (514 KB PDF)

2003-47 (September)
Further Evidence on the Link between Finance and Growth: An International Analysis of Community Banking and Economic Performance
Allen N. Berger, Iftekhar Hasan, and Leora F. Klapper
Abstract | Full paper (302 KB PDF)

2003-46 (September)
Can Rational Expectations Sticky-Price Models Explain Inflation Dynamics?
Jeremy Rudd and Karl Whelan
Abstract | Full paper (299 KB PDF)

2003-45 (August)
"Interest Rates as Options": Assessing the Markets' View of the Liquidity Trap
Antulio N. Bomfim
Abstract | Full paper (242 KB PDF)

2003-44 (August)
The Replacement Demand for Motor Vehicles: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
Ana Aizcorbe, Martha Starr, and James T. Hickman
Abstract | Full paper (85 KB PDF)

2003-43 (August)
Inflation Targets, Credibility, and Persistence in a Simple Sticky-Price Framework
Jeremy Rudd and Karl Whelan
Abstract | Full paper (290 KB PDF)

2003-42 (August )
An Empirical Test of a Two-Factor Mortgage Valuation Model: How Much Do House Prices Matter?
Chris Downing, Richard Stanton, and Nancy Wallace
Abstract | Full paper (302 KB PDF)

2003-41 (August)
Inflation Scares and Forecast-Based Monetary Policy
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Abstract | Full paper (207 KB PDF)

2003-40 (August)
Volatility Puzzles: A Unified Framework for Gauging Return-Volatility Regressions
Tim Bollerslev and Hao Zhou
Abstract | Full paper (197 KB PDF)

2003-39 (July)
Economic and Regulatory Capital Allocation for Revolving Retail Exposures
Roberto Perli and William I. Nayda
Abstract | Full paper (198 KB PDF)

2003-38 (July)
Did Pension Plan Accounting Contribute to a Stock Market Bubble?
Julia Lynn Coronado and Steven A. Sharpe
Abstract | Full paper (279 KB PDF)

2003-37 (July )
Do Banks Strategically Time Public Bond Issuance Because of Accompanying Disclosure, Due Diligence, and Investor Scrutiny?
Daniel M. Covitz and Paul Harrison
Abstract | Full paper (407 KB PDF)

2003-36 (July)
Historical Monetary Policy Analysis and the Taylor Rule
Athanasios Orphanides
Abstract | Full paper (330 KB PDF)

2003-35 (July)
Nationwide Branching and its Impact on Market Structure, Quality and Bank Performance
Astrid A. Dick
Abstract | Full paper (426 KB PDF)

2003-34 (July)
Coordination, Fair Treatment and Inflation Persistence
John C. Driscoll and Steinar Holden
Abstract | Full paper (730 KB PDF)

2003-33 (July)
Firm Specific Human Capital vs. Job Matching: A New Test
Erwan Quintin and John J. Stevens
Abstract | Full paper (165 KB PDF)
This paper will be an ELECTRONIC VERSION only.

2003-32 (July )
Itô Conditional Moment Generator and the Estimation of Short Rate Processes
Hao Zhou
Abstract | Full paper (298 KB PDF)

2003-31 (July)
Does Bank Lending Affect Output? Evidence from the U.S. States
John C. Driscoll
Abstract | Full paper (217 KB PDF)

2003-30 (July)
Sticky Prices, Coordination and Enforcement
John C. Driscoll and Harumi Ito
Abstract | Full paper (152 KB PDF)

2003-29 (July)
Inflation Persistence and Relative Contracting
John C. Driscoll and Steinar Holden
Abstract | Full paper (268 KB PDF)
This paper will be an ELECTRONIC VERSION only.

2003-28 (July)
Tunnels and Reserves in Monetary Policy Implementation
William Whitesell
Abstract | Full paper (469 KB PDF)

2003-27 (July)
Declining Required Reserves, Funds Rate Volatility, and Open Market Operations
Selva Demiralp and Dennis Farley
Abstract | Full paper (268 KB PDF)

2003-26 (July )
Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles: What Has Changed?
Jonathan McCarthy and Egon Zakrajsek
Abstract | Full paper (446 KB PDF)

2003-25 (July)
What Did the Credit Market Expect of Argentina Default? Evidence from Default Swap Data
Frank X. Zhang
Abstract | Full paper (461 KB PDF)

2003-24 (June )
A Rolling Tide: Changes in the Distribution of Wealth in the U.S., 1989-2001
Arthur B. Kennickell
Abstract | Full paper (358 KB PDF)

2003-23 (June )
Minimum Wages, Labor Market Institutions, and Youth Employment: A Cross-National Analysis
David Neumark and William Wascher
Abstract | Full paper (1122 KB PDF)

2003-22 (June)
The Recall and New Job Search of Laid-off Workers: A Bivariate Proportional Hazard Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity
Bruce Fallick and Keunkwan Ryu
Abstract | Full paper (379 KB PDF)

2003-21 (June)
Regime-Shifts, Risk Premiums in the Term Structure, and the Business Cycle
Ravi Bansal, George Tauchen, and Hao Zhou
Abstract | Full paper (265 KB PDF)

2003-20 (June)
Wealth Effects and the Consumption of Leisure: Retirement Decisions During the Stock Market Boom of the 1990s
Julia L. Coronado and Maria Perozek
Abstract | Full paper (226 KB PDF)

2003-19 (June)
Estimates of the Term Premium on Near-dated Federal Funds Futures Contracts
J. Benson Durham
Abstract | Full paper (364 KB PDF)

2003-18 (May )
The Effects of War Risk on U.S. Financial Markets
Roberto Rigobon and Brian Sack
Abstract | Full paper (216 KB PDF)

2003-17 (April)
The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets
Joshua Gallin
Abstract | Full paper (156 KB PDF)

2003-16 (April )
Foreclosing on Opportunity: State Laws and Mortgage Credit
Karen M. Pence
Abstract | Full paper (1086 KB PDF)

2003-15 (April)
Monetary Policy and the Yield Curve
Antulio N. Bomfim
Abstract | Full paper (236 KB PDF)

2003-14 (April)
Market Structure and Quality: An Application to the Banking Industry
Astrid A. Dick
Abstract | Full paper (1296 KB PDF)

2003-13 (April)
Spillovers Across U.S. Financial Markets
Roberto Rigobon and Brian Sack
Abstract | Full paper (488 KB PDF)

2003-12 (April)
New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt
Thomas Laubach
Abstract | Full paper (149 KB PDF)
This is a revised version of this paper; previous paper was dated March 2003.

2003-11 (March )
Robust Monetary Policy Rules with Unknown Natural Rates
Athanasios Orphanides and John C. Williams
Abstract | Full paper (328 KB PDF)

2003-10 (March)
Does Monetary Policy Affect Stock Prices and Treasury Yields? An Error Correction and Simultaneous Equation Approach
J. Benson Durham
Abstract | Full paper (219 KB PDF)

2003-9 (March)
Counterparty Credit Risk in Interest Rate Swaps during Times of Market Stress
Antulio N. Bomfim
Abstract | Full paper (496 KB PDF)

2003-8 (February)
The Welfare Effects of Incentive Schemes
Adam Copeland and Cyril Monnet
Abstract | Full paper (254 KB PDF)

2003-7 (February)
A Monetary Policy Rule Based on Nominal and Inflation-Indexed Treasury Yields
Brian Sack
Abstract | Full paper (206 KB PDF)

2003-6 (February)
The Impact of Credit Unions on the Rates Offered for Retail Deposits by Banks and Thrift Institutions
Timothy H. Hannan
Abstract | Full paper (51 KB PDF)

2003-5 (February )
The Stability of Dummy Variable Price Measures Obtained from Hedonic Regressions
Ana Aizcorbe
Abstract | Full paper (687 KB PDF)
This paper will be an ELECTRONIC VERSION only.

2003-4 (February )
Initial Public Offerings in Hot and Cold Markets
Jean Helwege and Nellie Liang
Abstract | Full paper (122 KB PDF)

2003-3 (February)
Money Demand and Equity Markets
Seth Carpenter and Joe Lange
Abstract | Full paper (68 KB PDF)

2003-2 (February)
The Institutional Memory Hypothesis and the Procyclicality of Bank Lending Behavior
Allen N. Berger and Gregory F. Udell
Abstract | Full paper (299 KB PDF)

2003-1 (February)
How Should Unemployment Benefits Respond to the Business Cycle?
Michael T. Kiley
Abstract | Full paper (138 KB PDF)