Finance and Economics Discussion Series
		1996 FEDS papers FEDS ordering information

1996-50
Smart Systems and Simple Agents: Industry Pricing by Parallel Rules
Raymond Board and P.A. Tinsley
Abstract | Full paper (180 KB PDF) | Full paper (183 KB Postscript)

1996-49
Off-Farm Labor Supply and Fertilizer Use
Russell L. Lamb
Abstract | Full paper (535 KB PDF)

1996-48
The Endogeneity of Employment Adjustment Costs: The Tradeoff between Efficiency and Flexibility
Charles A. Fleischman
Abstract | Full paper (622 KB PDF) | Full paper (1126 KB Postscript)

1996-47
Moving Endpoints and the Internal Consistency of Agents' Ex Ante Forecasts
Sharon Kozicki and P.A. Tinsley
Abstract | Full paper (208 KB PDF) | Full paper (517 KB Postscript)

1996-46
Evidence on the Link between Firm-Level and Aggregate Inventory Behavior
Scott Schuh
Abstract | Full paper (694 KB PDF) | Full paper (687 KB Postscript)

1996-45
Recent Developments in Bootstrapping Time Series
Jeremy Berkowitz and Lutz Kilian
Abstract | Full paper (3923 KB PDF)

1996-44
The Effect of Deficit-Reduction Laws on Real Interest Rates
Douglas W. Elmendorf
Abstract | Full paper (203 KB PDF) | Full paper (320 KB Postscript)

1996-43
Investment and Union Certification
Bruce C. Fallick and Kevin A. Hassett
Abstract | Full paper (145 KB PDF) | Full paper (283 KB Postscript)

1996-42
A Guide to FRB/US: A Macroeconomic Model of the United States
F. Brayton and P. Tinsley (eds.)
Abstract | Full paper (261 KB PDF) | Full paper (503 KB Postscript)

1996-41
``Forecasting the Forecasts of Others:'' Expectational Heterogeneity and Aggregate Dynamics
Antulio N. Bomfim
Abstract | Full paper (214 KB PDF) | Full paper (367 KB Postscript)

1996-40
Motor Vehicle Stocks, Scrappage, and Sales
Alan Greenspan and Darrel Cohen
Abstract | Full paper (78 KB PDF) | Full paper (264 KB Postscript)

1996-39
Long-Horizon Exchange Rate Predictability?
Jeremy Berkowitz and Lorenzo Giorgianni
Abstract | Full paper (209 KB PDF) | Full paper (892 KB Postscript)

1996-38
What's Good for GM...? Using Auto Industry Stock Returns to Forecast Business Cycles and Test the Q-Theory of Investment
Gregory R. Duffee and Stephen D. Prowse
Abstract | Full paper (465 KB PDF) | Full paper (399 KB Postscript)

1996-37
Generalized Spectral Estimation
Jeremy Berkowitz
Abstract | Full paper (225 KB PDF) | Full paper (221 KB Postscript)

1996-36
Debt Maturity and the Use of Interest Rate Derivatives by Nonfinancial Firms
George W. Fenn, Mitch Post, and Steven A. Sharpe
Abstract | Full paper (117 KB PDF) | Full paper (481 KB Postscript)

1996-35
Vehicle Ownership, Vehicle Acquisitions, and the Growth of Auto Leasing: Evidence from Consumer Surveys
Ana Aizcorbe and Martha Starr-McCluer
Abstract | Full paper (41 KB PDF) | Full paper (97 KB Postscript)

1996-34
Initial Public Offerings in Hot and Cold Markets
Jean Helwege and Nellie Liang
Abstract | Full paper (3151 KB PDF)

1996-33
The Lead of Output over Inflation in Sticky Price Models
Michael T. Kiley
Abstract | Full paper (158 KB PDF) | Full paper (328 KB Postscript)

1996-32
Taxation of Labor Income and the Demand for Risky Assets
Douglas W. Elmendorf and Miles S. Kimball
Abstract | Full paper (3250 KB PDF)

1996-31
Tax Exhaustion, Firm Investment, and Leasing: A Test of the Q Model of Investment
Michael P. O'Malley
Abstract | Full paper (181 KB PDF) | Full paper (368 KB Postscript)

1996-30
Is ``Learning-by-Exporting'' Important? Micro-dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco
Sofronis Clerides, Saul Lach, and James Tybout
Abstract | Full paper (4434 KB PDF)

1996-29
Estimating the Price of Default Risk
Gregory R. Duffee
Abstract | Full paper (721 KB PDF) | Full paper (1053 KB Postscript)

1996-28
Minimum Wage Effects of Employment and School Enrollment: Reply to Evans and Turner
David Neumark and William Wascher
Abstract | Full paper (1572 KB PDF)

1996-27
The Effect of Interest-Rate Changes on Household Saving and Consumption: A Survey
Douglas W. Elmendorf
Abstract | Full paper (527 KB PDF) | Full paper (884 KB Postscript)

1996-26
A Comparison of the Household Sector from the Flow of Funds Accounts and the Survey of Consumer Finances
Rochelle L. Antoniewicz
Abstract | Full paper (62 KB PDF) | Full paper (114 KB Postscript)

1996-25
Does Corporate Lending by Banks and Finance Companies Differ? Evidence on Specialization in Private Debt Contracting
Mark Carey, Mitch Post, and Stephen A. Sharpe
Abstract | Full paper (467 KB PDF)

1996-24
The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation
Athanasios Orphanides and David W. Wilcox
Abstract | Full paper (155 KB PDF)

1996-23
Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence
Michael T. Kiley
Abstract | Full paper (122 KB PDF) | Full paper (435 KB Postscript)

1996-22
Changes in REIT Liquidity 1990-94: Evidence from Intra-day Transactions
Vijay Bhasin, Rebel Cole, and Joseph K. Kiely
Abstract | Full paper (328 KB PDF) | Full paper (508 KB Postscript)

1996-21
Compensation Incentives and Risk Taking Behavior: Evidence from Mutual Funds
Athanasios Orphanides
Abstract | Full paper (267 KB PDF) | Full paper (260 KB Postscript)

1996-20
Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads: An Empirical Analysis
Gregory R. Duffee
Abstract | Full paper (520 KB PDF) | Full paper (450 KB Postscript)

1996-19
Inflation, Volatility, and Growth
Ruth Judson and Athanasios Orphanides
Abstract | Full paper (179 KB PDF) | Full paper (171 KB Postscript)

1996-18
Household Saving and Portfolio Change: Evidence from the 1983-89 SCF Panel
Arthur B. Kennickell and Martha Starr-McCluer
Abstract | Full paper (511 KB PDF)

1996-17
Around and Around: The Expectations Hypothesis
Mark Fisher and Christian Gilles
Abstract | Full paper (330 KB PDF) | Full paper (267 KB Postscript)

1996-16
Inflation and Financial Sector Size
William B. English
Abstract | Full paper (3423 KB PDF)

1996-15
Commercial Banks and Real Estate Lending: The Texas Experience
Rebel A. Cole, Robert A. Eisenbeis, and Paul M. Horvitz
Abstract | Full paper (142 KB PDF) | Full paper (589 KB Postscript)

1996-14
Solving an Empirical Puzzle in the Capital Asset Pricing Model
John Leusner, Jalal D. Akhavein, and P.A.V.B. Swamy
Abstract | Full paper (477 KB PDF)

1996-13
Do Low Human Capital Coefficients Make Sense? A Puzzle and Some Answers
Ruth Judson
Abstract | Full paper (689 KB PDF) | Full paper (1413 KB Postscript)

1996-12
The Impact of Capital-Based Regulation on Bank Risk-Taking: A Dynamic Model
Paul S. Calem and Rafael Rob
Abstract | Full paper (131 KB PDF) | Full paper (249 KB Postscript)

1996-11
Regulatory Competition and the Efficiency of Alternative Derivative Product Margining Systems
Paul H. Kupiec and A. Patricia White
Abstract | Full paper (294 KB PDF) | Full paper (246 KB Postscript)

1996-10
Labor Productivity: Structural Change and Cyclical Dynamics
Martin N. Baily, Eric J. Bartelsman, and John Haltiwanger
Abstract | Full paper (555 KB PDF)

1996-9
Bubbles as Payoffs at Infinity
Christian Gilles and Stephen F. LeRoy
Abstract | Full paper (303 KB PDF) | Full paper (259 KB Postscript)

1996-8
Why Are Estimates of Agricultural Supply Response So Variable?
Francis X. Diebold and Russell L. Lamb
Abstract | Full paper (652 KB PDF) | Full paper (849 KB Postscript)

1996-7
A Minor Redefinition of M2
William Whitesell and Sean Collins
Abstract | Full paper (343 KB PDF)

1996-6
The Effect of Changes in Ownership Structure on Performance: Evidence from the Thrift Industry
Rebel A. Cole and Hamid Mehran
Abstract | Full paper (219 KB PDF) | Full paper (419 KB Postscript)

1996-5
Learning by Doing and the Value of Experimentation
Volker Wieland
Abstract | Full paper (692 KB PDF) | Full paper (1582 KB Postscript)

1996-4
Forecasting Long- and Short-Horizon Stock Returns in a Unified Framework
Chunsheng Zhou
Abstract | Full paper (215 KB PDF) | Full paper (218 KB Postscript)

1996-3
Stock Market Fluctuations and the Term Structure
Chunsheng Zhou
Abstract | Full paper (216 KB PDF) | Full paper (203 KB Postscript)

1996-2
Measurement Error and Time Aggregation: A Closer Look at Estimates of Output-Labor Elasticities
Marcello Estevao
Abstract | Full paper (443 KB PDF)

1996-1
Saving and Financial Planning: Some Findings from a Focus Group
Arthur B. Kennickell, Martha Starr-McCluer, and Annika E. Sunden
Abstract | Full paper (40 KB PDF) | Full paper (81 KB Postscript)