Absolute Cancer Risk Prediction Models
Absolute cancer risk is the probability that an individual with given risk factors and
a given age will develop cancer over a defined period of time. In collaboration with
investigators in the NCI's Division of Cancer
Epidemiology and Genetics (DCEG), staff of the Risk Factor Monitoring and Methods
Branch (RFMMB) are developing statistical models to predict the absolute risk of
developing specific cancers among average-risk individuals based on their risk and
protective factors for cancer. Examples of these factors include race, age, sex, body mass
index, family history of cancer, history of tobacco use, use of aspirin and nonsteroidal
anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDS), physical activity, use of hormone replacement therapy,
reproductive factors, history of cancer screening, and dietary factors. This research
builds on past cancer risk assessment models developed at NCI, including the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool
(often referred to as the "Gail Model").
Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cancer over a
defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of
specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of
behavioral changes to decrease risk. These types of models also will be useful for
designing future chemoprevention and screening intervention trials in individuals at high
risk of specific cancers in the general population.
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