The National Assessment Overview The Global Change Research Act of 1990 (Public Law 101-606) states that the Federal Government "shall prepare and submit to the President and the Congress an assessment which-- integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and analyzes current trends in global change, both human-inducted and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years." The assessment is to be completed by January 1, 2000 and is under the direction of the interagency National Science and Technology Council's Committee on Environment and Natural Resources, Subcommittee on Global Change Research (SGCR), which coordinates the implementation of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) in cooperation with the President's Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP). The process to conduct the assessment was initiated in January, 1997 at a White House meeting of all Federal Cabinet members. The assessment, which is entitled "U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change," is a Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) chartered process that began with a series of 7 regional workshops across the United States that were designed to identify and prioritize issues related to climate variability and change. Following the initial workshops, a National Forum of scientists and stakeholders was convened in Washington, D.C., in November, 1997. During the forum, regional issues were synthesized and prioritized, and plans for conducting the national assessment were initiated. These plans include holding 13 additional regional workshops in 1998 and reducing the number of national assessment sectors to five. The five national sectors are water resources, forests, agriculture, human health and coastal areas. Approaching potential impacts from a regional scale helps place climate variability and change in the context of specific concerns to people where they live. By engaging scientists, educators, planners, resource managers, legislators, business people, activists, and other decision makers and concerned citizens in the assessment process, the hope is to better understand the regional mosaic of current and potential changes and establish the basis for coping with the future change. The regional networks overlap by design to foster involvement and interaction. The National Assessment will help society understand climate variability and change, what the significance might be, and how to better prepare for responding or coping. The program has both science and assessment components to address these goals. The science is focused in four areas: Seasonal to inter-annual climate variability Climate change over decades to centuries Changes in ozone, ultraviolet radiation, and atmospheric chemistry Changes in land cover and in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems The major questions driving the assessment include: What are the current environmental stresses and how are they likely to play out in the future without a change in climate or climate variability? How will a change in climate or climate variability affect these environmental stresses? How can people cope with climate variability and change in ways that help with other environmental stresses? What knowledge and information do people need to better estimate the consequences of climate variability and change? The management and funding for the sectoral and regional assessments was distributed among the Federal agencies. Each designated agency is responsible for assembling assessment teams, advisory committees, and analytical support from a broad spectrum of scientists and stakeholders. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), through the Department of Interior (DOI), was given the responsibility for 3 of the 20 regions in the United States (Rocky Mountain/Great Basin, Southwest, and Alaska) and for the water resources sector. The regions are charged with qualitative assessments, while the sectors have quantitative responsibilities. The water resources sector analysis will provide an assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change on the water resources of the nation. Results from the water resources sector assessment will provide a wide spectrum of useful data and information. Analytical information will include modeling results from climate, hydrologic, and socio-economic models for current, 25 to 30 and 100 years in the future that will be useful to stakeholders. U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey This page is <http://esp.cr.usgs.gov/info/assessment/overview.html> Maintained by Randy Schumann Last modified Wednesday, 15-Mar-2006 14:38:42 MST