Thomas Jordan, director of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC), will talk about building brick-by-brick knowledge of earthquake predictability during a Director’s Colloquium today at the Laboratory.
The talk is scheduled to begin at 1:10 p.m. in the Physics Building Auditorium at Technical Area 3 and is open to the Laboratory work force.
Jordan is a professor at University of Southern California and the director of the SCEC, which is a leading consortium for earthquake research. His research and study includes earthquakes, seismological study of Earth structure and geodetic observations of plate motions and interplate deformation. Through his research, Jordan has made many important discoveries about the three-dimensional structure of the Earth’s interior by using the information from earthquake waves that travel deep inside the Earth. His work has led to a better understanding of plate tectonics.
Three basic questions will be the focus of Jordan’s presentation: 1) how should scientific earthquake predictions be conducted and evaluated? 2) what is the intrinsic predictability of the earthquake rupture process and? 3) can knowledge of large-earthquake predictability be deployed as useful predictions?
According to Jordan, in response to public expectations, scientists have struggled with the answer to question three in an effort to make significant contributions to the prevention of earthquake fatalities. While some argue that a single precursory phenomenon or pattern that can reliably signal a large earthquake has yet to be discovered, Jordan argues that a “brick-by-brick approach” to answering question number two will help build an understanding of earthquake predictability.
The challenge in studying earthquake predictability is the inability to conduct scientific prediction experiments under rigorous, controlled conditions and evaluate them using accepted criteria specified in advance, said Jordan.
Jordan will discuss how the SCEC is developing a virtual laboratory for scientists to perform prediction experiments.
Jordan has a doctoral degree in geophysics from California Institute of Technology and has been recognized internationally by the Geological Society of America and the American Geophysical Society. He is a member of the National Academy, an American Society of Art and Sciences Fellow and is chairman of the Earth Sciences Department at MIT.
The talk also will be broadcast on LABNET Channel 9 and on desktop computers using Real Media Stream and IPTV technology.
For more information on the Director’s Colloquium Program, go to http://stb.lanl.gov/colloquium online.
