Climate Prediction Center - seasonal Outlook

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6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster. Please refer to the U.S. Prognostic Discussion for an explanation of terms and symbols used on these maps.

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How to read the 6-10 Day Outlook Maps

Analog Maps

Upper Air Maps

Product Interpretation: The top map shows the CPC official forecast of 500 hPa height (black lines, meters) and the deviation of that forecast from the 1971-2000 average of 30 observed 500 hPa height maps for the same calendar period covered by the forecast (red for positive, blue for negative, meters). For 6-10-(8-14-)day forecasts, the averaging period of the forecast covers the centered date listed at the top of the map and the 2(3) days before and after the centered date, for a total for 5(7) days.

The bottom map shows the 500 hPa height and anomaly map which results from averaging together the observed maps having the 10 highest pattern correlations with the official forecast. These 10 analogs are selected by performing a pattern correlation of the official forecast with observed maps in a 35-day time window centered on the centered date of the forecast, over the Pacific-North America region (60W westward to 175E, 20N to 70N), for observed maps from 1950 to 1999, and ranking the maps by their correlation scores. The 10-analog average map is then correlated with the original forecast over the PNA region, and the value of the correlation is listed in the upper left corner of the map.

Surface Maps

Product Interpretation: These maps show the number of times, out of the top ten 500 hPa height analogs, that the observed temperature or precipitation was in either the below or the above category. These counts are indicated by the shading of the pixels on the maps, where blue or brown and red or green indicate one of 5 categories (counts ranging from 5 to 10) of the below or above category of temperature or precipitation, respectively. In white areas, the counts for either of the extreme (below or above) categories were less than 5. The categories vary by region and calendar week, and are determined by dividing the observed weekly means into three categories, each of which occurs 1/3 of the time during the climatology period (currently 1971-2000). Under ideal conditions, the coldest (driest) 10 years would define the below category, the warmest (wettest) ten years would define the above category, and the remaining years would define the middle category.

610 Day Forecasts