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Updated
12 October, 2003
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National Assessment of |
More Information Summary Tables Overview of Emissions Scenarios and GCMs Guidance on when to use the VEMAP data
The National Assessment Overview and Foundation Reports were produced by the National Assessment Synthesis Team, an advisory committee chartered under the Federal Advisory Committee Act, and were not subjected to OSTP's Information Quality Act Guidelines. The National Assessment was forwarded to the President and Congress in November 2000 for their consideration.
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The Congressional charge that called for assessments of global change indicated a desire to have information that looked ahead 25 to 100 years, projecting major trends in climate and its consequences. In laying out these guidelines, Congress carefully chose the word "project" rather than "predict," recognizing that making a specific prediction or forecast would not be credible, given how rapidly the world is changing and the many possible outcomes. However, as is done by businesses, the military, and many other groups involved in high-stakes planning, developing scenarios is an approach that can provide plausible alternative futures (e.g., assuming a product will sell, considering the need to defend an interest somewhere in the world). These plausible alternative futures can be used to project what might happen in the future under a particular, evolving set of assumptions. Done carefully, scenarios can provide a starting point for examining questions about an uncertain future and can help us visualize alternative futures in concrete and human terms. The National Assessment followed a scenario-based approach. To investigate the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the environment and society, a number of scenarios were used to provide context for carrying out the analyses:
For more information on how scenarios were used in the U.S. National Assessment, please refer to the links below. |
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