To identify those current stresses on the region that might be most vulnerable to climate variability and change, ninety-five people from nine states that comprise the central and southern portions of Appalachia met at West Virginia University in Morgantown, WV in May, 1998 for the Central and Southern Appalachian Regional Workshop. The purpose of this event was to begin to identify topics warranting further study should an assessment of the impacts of climate change on the region be undertaken. The event was sponsored by the USDA's Forest Service as one in a series of National Assessment regional workshops.

A subset of the area defined as Appalachia by the Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC) was used to establish the region for our workshop and to identify eligible participants. The region follows the Appalachian mountain range and includes east-central Pennsylvania, all of West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee, northern Alabama, northern Georgia, western North Carolina, southwestern Virginia, and western Maryland.

Participants in the workshop included academic and government scientists, industry representatives, environmental activists, and elected officials. Some were knowledgeable about the state of climate science and some were not. Experts from within and beyond the region presented plenary talks on the socio-economic characteristics of the region, climate science, national and regional energy patterns, regional forest health, and issues related to water resources and agriculture. While the event emphasized climate variability and change, for some groups, policies to address the potential for long-term climate change were equally important.

Appalachia is characterized by steep topography, serves as the headwaters for many of the major waterways in the eastern U.S., and has a rural population whose level of education is less than the national average. Half the counties in the whole of Appalachia reflect national economic trends. However, half the counties lag significantly behind the nation, with smaller and more remote counties experiencing poverty rates two-and-one-half times the national average. For example, double-digit unemployment is typical in southern West Virginia counties. Appalachia is more dependent on manufacturing than the nation as a whole. Indeed, the recent Southern Appalachia Assessment published in 1996 found that manufacturing alone accounted for 22.6% of the employment, 30.4% of employee compensation, and 39.8% of the industrial output. These industries are often significant energy consumers. Changes in commodity energy prices have had a much bigger impact on the central portion of the region than on the nation as a whole. The region also has a higher share of jobs in natural resource-related sectors, including coal mining and farming, than the nation as whole.

Topics discussed by the region's participants included human communities and health, water resources, forestry, agriculture, and energy.

Communities and Human Health: Workshop participants felt that national legislation to counter CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels may significantly affect human communities in this region because coal mining is economically important to many distressed counties, and because the economic base of the region as a whole relies heavily on manufacturing. Recovery from severe weather events, especially in areas with aging or little infrastructure, was also cited as an important issue. While the most pressing health issues in the region (e.g., high rates of cancer, heart disease, and obesity) are not likely to be affected by climate variability or change, health concerns related to climate may include:

• effects of declining air quality made worse by stagnant air masses which trap airborne pollutants and a lack of a perceived threat among people who believe the air is cleaner than it is,
• declining water quality and quantity in a region where the population relies heavily on well water and where sewage overflows and other sources of contamination seem to be prevalent;
• climate-related increases in rodent and insect populations that carry infectious diseases, the introduction of new diseases, and biological changes that promote the emergence and spread of disease;
• an increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters in a region where victims receive less economic and social support;
• and an increase in urban sprawl and a lack of land-use planning that could worsen the effects current and future climate variability.

Water Resources: Central and Southern Appalachia is highly susceptible to soil erosion and valley flooding. The four most important concerns mentioned during the workshop were:

• changes in the distribution of precipitation in time and space (e.g., the frequency and extent of large rain events and droughts) and its effects on soil moisture, erosion, landslide hazards, flood control, flood prediction, and adequate flood warning;
• changes in water quality (especially temperature) and quantity, and their impact on sensitive species and species that are already threatened and endangered;
• increased water removal from surface and ground water supplies by human activities and evapotranspiration; and
• changes in water temperatures and their impact on power generation.

Forestry: Over 70% of the region's landscape is forested, with the related wood-products industry playing an increasingly important role in the region's economy. For example, the industry has provided 70,000 stable jobs in the southern part of the region between 1975-1993. Issues relevant to climate concerns include:

• alterations in the composition of tree species present in the forests;
• sustainable forest productivity and health in the face of increased nitrogen deposition, greater ozone concentrations, higher levels of CO₂, drought, and warmer temperatures;
• the climate sensitivity of native and introduced species (including plant pathogens);
• the effects on water quality due to changes in soil erosion, nitrogen concentrations, etc.;
• the interactive effect of climate change and forest management on stream flow and flooding events;
• and changes in the susceptibility to and frequency of fire.

Agriculture: Regional features that make agriculture particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change include farming in valley bottoms, narrow economic profit margins, the use of longer-lived perennial crops for some farmers (e.g., fruit trees), and susceptibility to soil erosion. Among the top climate-related concerns were the effects of drought, water availability for irrigation, soil quality, pesticide use, nutrient management, changes in pest populations, flooding, and water quality issues.

Energy: In 1995 for the U.S., 1,635 million metric tonnes of carbon were reportedly emitted into the atmosphere as a result of human activity, with 86% of those emissions attributable to fossil fuels, 30% from coal and 20% from natural gas, both important to the region. Of the amount released, 33% was due to energy consumption by industry, 30% by buildings, and 28% by transportation. Nine percent was attributable to municipal solid waste and agriculture and forestry activity. Coal is the dominant fuel for electricity generation. Data are not available solely for the workshop region; however, for the nine states, parts of which comprise the region, coal fueled 75% of the electricity generated. While coal is mined in each of the states in the region, Kentucky and West Virginia regularly jockey as one of the top three coal producers in the nation. Direct climate impacts on the energy sector, such as extreme weather events, are likely to be manageable. However, policies to deal with potential long-term climate change could have a major effect on the energy sector and on the economy of the region.

The observations listed for each of these areas would provide the basis for further study to firmly establish whether and what type of climate variability or long term changes would in fact severely stress the region.

For more information, contact:
Trina Karolchik Wafle, West Virginial University, National Research Center for Coal and Energy; PO Box 6064, Morgantown, WV 26506; phone: (304) 293-2867; email: tkarolch@wvu.edu; or see the workshop web site at: http://www.nrcce.wvu.edu/special/csaw/csawhome.htm