EPA's Global Change Research Program is an assessment-oriented research program with primary emphasis on understanding the potential consequences of global change for human health, ecosystems, and social well-being in the United States. Assessments are also being done of opportunities to adapt to change in order to reduce the risks and take advantage of opportunities that arise due to global change. Assessment is viewed as an ongoing process of synthesizing and analyzing the best available scientific and socioeconomic information in terms of its implications for policy, decision making, resource management, and society.

In coordinating findings from diverse disciplines, assessment goes beyond simply reporting scientific findings about physical environmental effects and their causes. The physical or biological sciences are combined with the considerations of social scientists to attain a "policy-relevant" perspective, and to gain insights about different ways to achieve environmental improvements. Its purpose is to guide decision-makers and the public towards understanding the trade-offs among alternative risk management strategies.

Program Focus Areas
The Program assesses the potential effects of climate change and climate variability on: (1) human health; (2) air quality; (3) water quality and quantity; and (4) ecosystem health. Examples of research projects include assessments of:

• implications for the spread of infectious water- and vector-borne diseases;
• the mortality and morbidity effects of heat stress;
• ecological effects of UV radiation;
• effects of multiple stressors on Arctic ecosystems and human health;
• adaptive potential of ecosystems and species to current and future stresses;
• optimal water treatment regimes given expected changes in climate;
• effects on ecosystems and species of extreme events, including changes in frequency and intensity of droughts, floods, and temperature extremes;
• quantification of value of changes in ecosystems services;
• implications of sea-level rise for population displacement, damage to infrastructure, water quality, and human health.

All of the climate-induced changes are being assessed in the context of multiple stressors; that is, climate change is viewed as one of many stressors, including non-climate-related stressors. For example, the synergistic effects of climate change and UV-B exposure on ecosystems are being evaluated, as are the synergistic effects of climate change and land-use change.

The research and assessment activities are also evaluating the potential co-benefits of adaptation policies. Co-benefits refer to the collateral benefits that may accrue, for instance, when policies that result in reductions in criteria air pollutants also yield reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, or conversely, when policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions result in reductions in criteria air pollutants. The co-benefits to be examined include changes in emissions of criteria air pollutants, water quality changes, and improvements to ecosystem health. The resulting health and welfare effects of the changes in criteria air pollutants, water quality changes, and land-use changes are being assessed.

EPA's Role in the USGCRP National Assessment Process

EPA plays an integral part in the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), and is making significant contributions to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment process. In FY 2000, scientists supported by EPA's Global Change Research Program will complete the four assessments that EPA is sponsoring as part of the first National Assessment: the Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment, the Great Lakes Regional Assessment, the Gulf Coast Regional Assessment, and the Health Sector Assessment. These assessments are being conducted through public-private partnerships that actively engage researchers from the academic community, decision makers, resource managers, and other affected stakeholders in the assessment process. The focus of each is as follows:

• Gulf Coast -- The Gulf Coast Regional Assessment is analyzing the potential effects of climate change and variability on ecosystems, farming, forestry, industry, human health, air quality, water quality, fisheries, and recreation/tourism.
• Great Lakes -- The Great Lakes Regional Assessment is considering the potential effects of climate change and variability on water quality and quantity, including lake levels and temperatures, storms and extreme events, natural resources, such as plant life, forests, wetlands, agriculture, air quality, health, and education.
• Mid-Atlantic -- The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment is analyzing the potential effects of climate change and variability on forests, agriculture, water supplies, coastal zones, and human health.
• Health Sector -- The Health Sector Assessment is analyzing the potential effects of climate change and variability on the health of the US population over the next 20 to 100 years.

Between 2000 and 2010, the EPA will continue to fulfill its commitments to the USGCRP and obligations under the Global Change Research Act of 1990 to conduct periodic scientific assessments of the regional consequences of global change for the United States. These assessments will be conducted in partnership with affected stakeholders in the regions to ensure that the insights gained will be useful and enable them to incorporate considerations of climate change into resource planning. Also, EPA's Global Change Research Program will continue to participate in and support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the preparation of its periodic assessment reports. Outcomes from the program will be improvements to public health and ecosystem health as a result of more comprehensive resource planning by regional stakeholders.
 

For more information, contact:
Joel Scheraga, Director, Global Change Research Program, U.S. EPA; phone: (202) 564-3385; email: Scheraga.Joel@epa.gov