The National Assessment Overview and Foundation Reports were produced  by the National Assessment Synthesis Team, an advisory committee chartered under the Federal Advisory Committee Act, and were not subjected to OSTP's Information Quality Act Guidelines. The National Assessment was forwarded to the President and Congress in November 2000 for their consideration.

Publications by the National Assessment Synthesis Team

Links to Material from the Forests Assessment Group

• Forests Sector Assessment Homepage (North Carolina State University & US Forest Service).
• Forests. The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (PDF, 1 Mb).  Eight-page brochure summarizing the report from the National Forest Assessment Group. Also available from the GCRIO Online Catalog.
• Articles from Ecosystems (Vol 4, No 3, 2001), section on "Forest Biodiversity Under Global Change."
  • Biodiversity in US Forests under Global Climate Change.  Commentary by Andrew Hansen and Virginia Dale.
  • Climate Change Effects on Vegetation Distribution and Carbon Budget in the United States.  Article by Dominique Bachelet, Ronald P. Neilson, James M. Lenihan, and Raymond J. Drapek.
  • Potential Changes in Tree Species Richness and Forest Community Types following Climate Change.  Article by Louis R. Iverson and Anantha M. Prasad.
  • Potential Changes in the Distributions of Western North America Tree and Shrub Taxa under Future Climate Scenarios. Article by Sarah L. Shafer,  Patrick J. Bartlein, and Robert S. Thompson.
  • Projected Effects of Climate Change on Patterns of Vertebrate and Tree Species Richness in the Conterminous United States.  Article by David J. Currie.
• Articles from Bioscience, September 2001:
  • US National Climate Change Assessment on Forest Ecosystems: An Introduction.  By Steven G. McNulty and John D. Aber.
  • Climate Change and Forest Disturbances.  By Virginia H. Dale et al.  Winner of a Technical Publication Award in 2001 from the East Tennessee Chapter of the Society of Technical Communication (Distingished [1st place] for a Scholarly/Professional Article).
  • Forest Processes and Global Environmental Change: Predicting the Effects of Individual and Multiple Stressors.  By John Aber et al.
  • Assessing Socioeconomic Impacts of Climate Change on US Forests, Wood-Product Markets, and Forest Recreation.  By Lloyd C. Irland et al.
  • Global Change in Forests: Responses of Species, Communities, and Biomes.  By Andrew J. Hansen, et al.
• Special issue of The Science of the Total Environment (vol. 262, no.3, 2000) on Climate Change, Forests and Disturbances, edited by V.H. Dale.  Articles in PDF format:
  • The Interplay Between Climate Change, Forests, and Disturbances.  By V.H. Dale, L.A. Joyce, S. McNulty, R.P. Neilson.
  • Drought Disturbance from Climate Change: Response of United States Forests.  By P.J. Hanson and J.F. Weltzin
  • Global Climate Change and Introduced Species in United States Forests.  By Daniel Simberloff. (698 kb)
  • Effects and Outcomes of Caribbean Hurricanes in a Climate Change Scenario.  By Ariel E. Lugo.  (624 kb)
  • Climate Change and Forest Fires. By  M.D. Flannigan, B.J. Stocks and B.M. Wotton.  
  • Ice Storms and Forest Impacts.  By Lloyd C. Irland.
  • Assessing the Consequences of Global Change for Forest Disturbance from Herbivores and Pathogens.  By Matthew P. Ayres and Maria J. Lombardero.
  • Catastrophic Wind Damage to North American Forests and the Potential Impact of Climate Change.  Chris J. Peterson. 
• Forests Sector Team

Related Articles from the National Assessment's Newsletter, Acclimations.

• Climate Change Impacts on Forest Ecosystems - Steven G. McNulty and John D. Aber.  (March/April 2000)
• Forests - Steven McNulty.  (November/December 1998)

Other related Links:

• Forests and Global Climate Change.  Press release (dtd 26 Feb 2003) from Pew Center for Global Climate Change. Includes access to full report.  (link posted 31 March 2003)

Issues Covered

The Forests Sector concentrated on the potential changes that could occur in forests with climate change. Specifically, the assessment activities examined the productivity of forests, species diversity in forests, the potential changes in carbon storage, and changes in water availability to forest systems. Those involved in the assessment looked at possible alterations in physical (i.e. temperature and humidity) and chemical (i.e. changing air quality) atmospheric properties which can drive changes in the forests. The assessment also examined the role of social and economic shifts in changing the character of forests. Finally, the Forests Sector examined the role changing climate and climate variability could have on disturbance factors such as pests, fire, and disease within forest ecosystems.

Assessment Approach

The Forests Sector used published literature and data along with model simulations to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on forests.  Nationally consistent, large-scale models were used to compare impacts in different forest systems throughout the country. Where more detailed regional models of forest response to climate existed, comparisons were generated between the two approaches to assess the range of potential outcomes. Through this approach, the sector developed an array of potential impacts and coping strategies that could apply to the forests of the United States under climate change.