Table 3: Socioeconomic Data

• 3a) ORNL Socioeconomic Forecasts
• 3b) ORNL Supporting Data
• 3c) Extreme Weather Sourcebook

Table 3a: Socioeconomic forecasts (ORNL)
Description	With DOE support, Oak Ridge National Laboratory is arranging for the availability of socioeconomic forecasts for the U.S.: national, state, and county. A primary source is the National Planners Association. This will include: a copy of the current BAU forecast to 2025 (by mid-September) definition of assumptions for high and low scenarios (by September 1) provision of the high and low scenarios, down to country level, to 2025 and provision of all three scenarios (high, low, and bau) to 2050.
Function	To provide county level predictions of population and economic growth to the year 2050.
Availability	Now
References and URLs	Will be distributed via CD-ROMs to core NA participants
Technical Assistance	Contact Tom Wilbanks.
Direct Link to Data	None

 
 

Table 3b: Supporting Contextual Material (ORNL)
Description	Oak Ridge National Laboratory is also arranging for some additional supporting contextual material, including:  summary of forecasts of technological change in the U.S. summary of forecasts of institutional change in the U.S.   Also possible:  summary of forecasts at the national level of economic and demographic variables out to 2100.  summary of forecasts of land use change in the U.S. (nothing national appears to be available, but could summarize regional data).
Function	To provide more detailed forecasts of socioeconomic variables.
Availability	Drafts in August 1998
References and URLs	Will be distributed via CD-ROMs to core NA participants
Technical Assistance	Contact Tom Wilbanks.
Direct Link to Data	None

 
 

Table 3c: Extreme Weather Sourcebook
Description	Roger Pielke, Jr. from NCAR led the development of this site, which provides data on the cost of damages from hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods in the U.S.
Function	To provide the economic cost of extreme weather events in constant 1997 dollars, in order to simplify comparisons among extreme weather impacts and among states or regions.
Availability	Now
References and URLs	http://www.sip.ucar.edu/ sourcebook/
Technical Assistance
Direct Link to Data	Extreme Weather Sourcebook

 
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Boer, GJ., Flato, G.M., and Ramsden, D. 1999b. "A transient climate change simulation with historical and projected greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate for the 21st century", in press Climate Dynamics.

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Flato, G.M.; Boer, G.J.; Lee, W.G.; McFarlane, N.A.; Ramsden, D.; Reader, M.C.; Weaver, A.J. 1999. "The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Global Coupled Model and its Climate", in press Climate Dynamics.

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Kittel, T.G.F., N.A. Rosenbloom, T.H. Painter, D.S. Schimel, and VEMAP Modeling Participants. 1995. The VEMAP integrated database for modeling United States ecosystem/vegetation sensitivity to climate change. Journal of Biogeography 22:857-862.

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