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![]() Output Trends in Major S&E Publishing CentersTrends in U.S. Article OutputThe number of S&E articles credited to U.S. institutions through fractional counting of the expanding Thomson ISI journal set has essentially remained constant since 1992 after growing consistently during the preceding two decades. It is convenient to divide the 1988–2003 period into an early period (1988–92) when U.S. article output was growing and a later period (1992–2003) when it was essentially flat. Output grew at an average annual rate of 0.6% between 1992 and 2003 but all the growth occurred in 2003, so growth was -0.2% through 2002, compared with 2.9% between 1988 and 1992 (figure 1 The flattening of U.S. article output occurred despite continued growth of both real R&D expenditures and the academic sector R&D workforce, which produces most U.S. S&E articles (figure 2 These changes are not the result of changes in Thomson ISI journal coverage. Although expanding journal coverage over time could affect measures of U.S. output for reasons that have little or nothing to do with publishing intensity, such as coverage of new non-English journals, data from the fixed set of journals that have been part of the Thomson ISI database since 1985 show a similar growth pattern and identical change in the U.S. share (appendix table 2). In several other journal databases, the trend of faster growth in the rest of the world relative to the United States was also similar (appendix table 1). Therefore, except as otherwise noted, this section reports data for the Thomson ISI expanding journal set. Throughout the 1988–2003 period, international collaboration as indicated by article coauthorship was rising, which affects whole and fractional authorship counts differently (see sidebar "Effect of International Collaboration on Whole- and Fractional-Count Output"). However, overall U.S. output trends based on these two measures are congruent, albeit with somewhat higher U.S. growth rates when whole counts are used. Thus, U.S. whole-count output slowed in a pattern similar to the flattening of output seen when fractional counts are used (figure 3 Unless otherwise indicated, the remainder of this report presents fractional-count data for the expanding Thomson ISI journal set. However growth trends by field seen in the whole-count data and in the fixed journal set are similar. U.S. growth trends by field showed some variation (appendix tables 3 and 5). In some fields, the pattern tracks the overall trend fairly closely, but with different dates for the onset of flattening. These include the social sciences (1990), biology (1990), engineering/technology (1993), chemistry (1993), clinical medicine (1995), biomedical research (1995), and psychology (1996). In physics, article output flattened at the same time as overall output but exhibited an outright decline between 1995 and 2003. In two fields, trends departed substantially from the overall pattern. Article output in the earth/space sciences grew consistently over the entire 15-year period. In mathematics, output declined between 1988 and 1997 but then grew modestly between 1997 and 2003. Trends in federal funding by field did not generally coincide with trends in article output in broadly comparable fields (table 1 U.S. Share of the World's ArticlesThe U.S. share of world article output declined between 1992 and 2003. The combination of nearly stagnant U.S. output and continued growth in the three other major S&E publishing centers led the U.S. share to fall from 37% to 30% (figure 4 As with output trends, share trends by field varied from the overall average (figure 5 For most fields, the size of the share decline was similar whether measured in whole or fractional counts (figure 5 Article Output in the EU-15, Japan, and the East Asia-4In contrast to the flattening of article output in the United States between 1992 and 2003, output expanded during this period in the three other major S&E publishing centers (figure 6 Article output in the EU-15 grew at an average annual rate of 2.8% between 1992 and 2003, more than four times faster than in the United States (figure 1 Japan's output rose at an average annual rate of 3.1% between 1992 and 2003, five times faster than that of the United States (figure 1 Authors based in the East Asia-4 produced S&E articles at a sharply accelerating pace. Between 1992 and 2003, growth in collective article output averaged almost 16% per annum, more than 25 times faster than in the United States (figure 1
Footnotes
[8] U.S. article output rose almost 8% in 2003 compared with 2002, following a decline between 2001 and 2002. A similar trend occurred in the EU countries and Japan. Although this trend may reflect a real change in article output, it may also be the result of variation in how quickly publications are added to the Thomson ISI database. [9] Data on S&E article output from earlier in the 1980s and the 1970s are available in appendix table 5-44 of Science and Engineering Indicators 1998 and appendix table 5-21 of Science and Engineering Indicators 1993, respectively. [10] Because the time needed to carry out research causes a lag between funding and publication of findings, the comparison of funding with article output allows for a 2-year lag between the date of funding and the date of publication (i.e., funding in year 1 is compared with article output in year 3). [11] Geosciences consists of earth, atmospheric, and ocean sciences.
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