Program Analysis Models and Tools
The following is a list of the models that are used for program analysis. Both of these tools can be applied on a global, regional, local, or project basis.
EERE Baseline and Portfolio Cases
NEMS-GPRA06 and MARKAL-GPRA06 (PDF 294 KB) Download Adobe Reader
The following is a list of models and tools that can assist in learning more about our main renewable energy technologies and their uses. Most of these tools can be applied on a global, regional, local, or project basis.
Concentrating Solar Deployment System (CSDS)
The Concentrating Solar Deployment System (CSDS) model is a computer model of expansion of generation and transmission capacity in the U.S. electric sector spanning the next 50 years. CSDS is designed to address the principal market and policy issues related to the penetration of concentrating solar power (CSP) electric-sector technologies. It minimizes system-wide costs of meeting loads, reserve requirements, and emission constraints by building and operating new generators and transmission in each of 26 two-year periods from 2000 to 2050. CSDS is focused on addressing the market issues of greatest significance to renewables — specifically issues of transmission and resource variability. CSDS is an extension of the Wind Deployment System (WinDS) model created at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). While WinDS examines issues related to wind, CSDS is an extension to analyze similar issues for CSP applications. Specifically, a detailed representation of parabolic trough systems with thermal storage has been developed within the existing structure. Contact Nate Blair of the Strategic Energy Analysis Center (SEAC) for more information.
Cost Curves
The cost of energy (COE) from renewable technologies has steadily declined in the past quarter century. As an example, the cost of wind energy has declined from about 30-45 cents per kilowatt-hour in 1980 to less than 5 cents today. Wind, PV, geothermal, solar thermal, and biomass have all seen significant drops in cost with the improvements in technology. This PowerPoint slide shows these historical trends and includes projections through 2020. These represent levelized cents/kWh in constant $2000. (PowerPoint 210 KB)
Energy-10
ENERGY-10 software can identify the best combination of energy-efficient strategies, including daylighting, passive solar heating, and high-efficiency mechanical systems. Using ENERGY-10 at a project's start takes less than an hour and can result in energy savings of 40%-70%, with little or no increase in construction cost. Visit the Energy-10 Web site for more information.
Geographic Information System
This site provides dynamically generated maps of renewable energy resources that determine which energy technologies are viable solutions in the United States. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory analyzes the resources and inputs the data into the GIS—Geographic Information Systems.
Green Power Network
The Green Power Network (GPN) provides news and information on green power markets and related activities. The site provides up-to-date information on green power providers, product offerings, consumer protection issues, and policies affecting green power markets. It also includes a reference library of relevant papers, articles and reports. The Green Power Network is operated and maintained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy.
HOMER
HOMER, the micropower optimization model, simplifies the task of evaluating design options for both off-grid and grid-connected power systems. When you design a power system, you must make many decisions about the configuration of the system: What components does it make sense to include in the system design? How many and what size of each component should you use? How do the costs and environmental impacts of different system designs compare? The large number of technology options, range of technology costs, and variable availability of energy resources make these decisions difficult to make. HOMER's optimization and sensitivity analysis algorithms make it easier to evaluate the many possible system configurations. For more information, visit the HOMER Web page. You also can access a fact sheet (PDF 934 KB) Download Adobe Reader about this unique tool. Contact developer Peter Lilienthal for more information.
Hybrid2
The Hybrid2 code is a user-friendly tool to conduct detailed long-term performance and economic analysis on a wide variety of hybrid power systems. Visit the Modeling and Tools for Project Engineering Web page, see last item for more information.
Hydrogen Deployment System (HyDS)
The Hydrogen Deployment System (HyDS) model analyzes the transition to a hydrogen economy. It costs out numerous pathways — from production to distribution — finding the most economic mode for hydrogen to be delivered in a user-defined region. It integrates an intercity optimization algorithm, which considers economy-of-scale of production, transportation, and delivery — as well as the trade-offs between centralized and forecourt hydrogen production. Given price projections for gasoline, natural gas, and other feedstocks, the HyDS ME produces a supply curve reflecting the most economic pathway for hydrogen to be delivered. Contact Walter Short of the Strategic Energy Analysis Center (SEAC) for more information.
Power Technologies Energy Data Book (Fourth Edition)
In 2002, the Strategic Energy Analysis Center of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed the first version of the Power Technologies Energy Data Book for the U.S. Department of Energy. The analysis group has now posted the fourth edition of the Power Technologies Energy Data Book, which provides updates from our previous edition. The primary purpose of the data book is to compile — in one central document — a comprehensive set of data about power technologies from diverse sources. This publication features more than 200 pages of energy supply-side data and complete technology profiles for renewable energy and distributed power technologies. The data book also contains a variety of charts on electricity restructuring, power technology forecasts and comparisons, electricity supply, electricity capability, electricity generation, electricity demand, prices, economic indicators, environmental indicators, and conversion factors. Please contact Jørn Aabakken with any questions.
RET Finance
RETFinance is a levelized cost-of-energy model, which simulates a detailed 20-year nominal dollar cash flow for renewable energy projects power projects including project earnings, cash flows, and debt payment to calculate a project's levelized cost-of-electricity, after-tax nominal Internal Rate of Return, and annual Debt-Service-Coverage-Ratios.
Real Options Analysis Center
The Real Options Analysis Center (ROAC) features two online models for real options valuation of renewable energy R&D and valuation of distributed generation assets.
Renewable Electric Plant Information System (REPiS)
The Renewable Electric Plant Information System (REPiS) — is a database developed and recently updated by the Strategic Energy Analysis Center (SEAC) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). REPiS includes information on operating (as well as planned) renewable energy units for biomass, geothermal, hydroelectric, photovoltaics, solar thermal, and wind energy technologies. This data represents an inventory of all known U.S. grid-connected renewable electric facilities in the United States. Originally created in 1984, REPIS is current and validated through 2002. The "coverage" represented by REPiS is one of the most complete out there. The database contains information on nearly 115,000 MW of renewable energy generation capacity connected to the utility grid, including 2,725 MW that went online from 2000 to 2002. It provides plant and capacity information useful to energy planners, policy makers, and others interested in renewable energy.
The Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations describe the technical and economic status of the major emerging renewable energy options for electricity supply. These technology characterizations represent the best estimates of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) regarding the future performance and cost improvements expected for these technologies as a result of continuing research and development (R&D) and development of markets for renewable energy through the year 2030. The Renewable Energy Technology Characterizations are copyrighted, but permission is granted for unlimited copying for noncommercial use.
Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS)
The Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS) model is a capacity-expansion model of the U.S. energy market. The model uses five-year time periods from 2005 to 2050. SEDS can be operated either deterministically or stochastically. When operated deterministically, SEDS uses a single value instead of the input-probability distributions for the uncertain parameters. In this mode, the results are immediate and informative, in terms of how the model responds to different inputs and assumptions. When operated stochastically, SEDS uses Monte Carlo simulations to make a number of sweeps through the time period. In each sweep, the random variables are sampled using a Latin Hypercube approach that improves on a standard Monte Carlo simulation. SEDS is being developed with a commercially available software package, Analytica, designed to facilitate the development of stochastic models (for more information on Analytica, visit Lumina). Contact James Milford of the Strategic Energy Analysis Center (SEAC) for more information.
ViPOR
The Village Power Optimization Model for Renewables, ViPOR, is a computational tool capable of designing an autonomous village electrification system using the lowest cost combination of centralized and isolated generation.
Wind Deployment System (WinDS)
The Wind Deployment System (WinDS) is a multiregional, multitime-period, Geographic Information System (GIS) and linear programming model of capacity expansion in the electric sector of the United States. The model, developed by NREL's Strategic Energy Analysis Center (SEAC), is designed to address the principal market issues related to the penetration of wind energy technologies into the electric sector. These principal market issues include access and cost of transmission, and the intermittency of wind power. WinDS addresses these issues through a highly discretized regional structure, explicit accounting for the variability in wind output over time, and consideration of ancillary services requirements and costs. See the WinDS Web site for more information.
|
