Average Water Quality Conditions Forecast for Bay This Summer

June 2007 -- Scientists are again predicting average water quality in the Bay this summer, according to the Bay Program's third annual summer ecological forecast. However, average conditions are far from optimal for the Bay's fish, shellfish and other living creatures.

The forecast anticipates the annual return of oxygen-deprived “dead zones” in the Bay's deeper waters, minimal increases in underwater grasses in three key locations and an average likelihood of harmful algal blooms on the tidal Potomac River.

• Dissolved oxygen - Scientists forecast that 2007 summer conditions in the Bay's deeper waters will be slightly worse than 2006, ranking near average when compared to conditions from the past 22 years.

• Bay grasses - No significant change in aquatic grass area is predicted for the northern Bay and Tangier Sound. A slight increase in aquatic grass area is forecast for the lower Potomac River, following substantial losses in 2006.

• Harmful algal blooms - Harmful algal bloom conditions on the Potomac River are also likely to be average when compared to previous years. Blooms are predicted to start in early summer, last for one to two months, and extend 10 to 20 miles at their peak.

"The forecast reminds us that we must continue to aggressively pursue restoration efforts throughout the entire Bay watershed," said Bay Program Director Jeffrey Lape. "While government may lead the restoration effort, we will only see improvement to the Bay's average conditions if all 16 million people living on the land that drains into the Bay do their part.

“If each resident in the watershed changed just one thing, that would equal 16 million positive changes for the Bay. We can all drive less, pave less, conserve energy and wait until fall to fertilize.”

Scientists forecast summer water quality by analyzing spring weather conditions and monitoring data. However, changes in temperature, precipitation and river flow could impact the accuracy of the forecast.