Bay Scientists Forecast Average Summer Conditions for Chesapeake Bay

Bay fish and shellfish likely to experience stressful conditions during summer months

Annapolis, Md. (June 11, 2007) - A team of Chesapeake Bay Program partner scientists is predicting conditions similar to those reported in last year's 2006 Chesapeake Bay Health and Restoration Report. The Chesapeake Bay's rockfish, crabs and oysters will experience stressful but typical conditions over the summer months, according to the Bay Program's summer ecological forecast.

“This year's forecast again calls for an ‘average' summer for Bay health,” said project leader Dr. William Dennison of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science. “Unfortunately, average conditions are far from optimal. The Chesapeake Bay deserves better.”

By analyzing spring weather conditions and monitoring data, the ecological forecast anticipates the annual return of oxygen-deprived “dead zones” in the Bay's deeper waters, minimal increases in underwater grasses in three key locations, and an average likelihood of harmful algal blooms on the tidal Potomac River.

• Oxygen Levels - Scientists forecast that 2007 summer conditions in the Bay's deeper waters will be slightly worse than 2006, ranking near average when compared to conditions experienced in the past 22 years.
• Bay grasses - No significant change in aquatic grass area is predicted for the northern Bay and Tangier Sound. A slight increase in aquatic grass area is forecast for the lower Potomac River, following substantial losses in 2006.
• Harmful algal blooms - Harmful algal bloom conditions on the Potomac River are also likely to be average when compared to previous years. Blooms are predicted to start in early summer, last for one to two months, and extend 10 to 20 miles at their peak.

“While the summer forecast is built upon relationships between past environmental pressures and resulting water quality, several overriding influences - such as changes in temperature, precipitation and river flow - could impact the accuracy of the forecast” continued Dennison.

"The forecast reminds us that we must continue to aggressively pursue restoration efforts throughout the entire Chesapeake Bay watershed," said Chesapeake Bay Program Director Jeffrey Lape. "While government may lead the restoration effort, we will only be able to meet restoration goals with the active support of all 16 million people living on the land that drains into the Bay.

Forecasting provides context for understanding the relationship between expected 2007 summer events, long-term Bay water quality conditions, and likely impacts of weather events. Scientists and researchers from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Maryland Department of Natural Resources and U.S. Geological Survey worked with colleagues from other state and federal agencies to develop the forecast.

The Chesapeake Bay watershed is home to more than 16 million people living in parts of Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia. Since 1983, the Chesapeake Bay Program has coordinated the restoration of the Bay and its watershed.