December 17, 2008
U.S. Energy Agency Foresees Less Coal Power in 2030
UCS Mini-Analysis on EIA's Energy Projections
The U.S. Dept. of Energy's Energy Information Administration released its preliminary Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO 2009) today. Our energy experts have completed an initial review and highlighted a few noteworthy pieces of information:
EIA projects a substantial drop in carbon dioxide emissions under the business as usual scenario. This drop is largely due to regulators rejecting and utilities canceling construction of new coal plants. EIA notes near the end of its press release that:
"…it reflects the behavior of investors and regulators who, in their investment evaluation process, are implicitly (or explicitly) adding a cost to many proposed power plants that employ GHG-intensive technologies. Additions of new coal-fired power plants are significantly reduced from earlier projections."
Inspection of EIA's tables reveals the dramatic nature of this turnaround. Between last year and this year, EIA has reduced its 2030 projection of new coal plants from 104 GW to 46 GW (see first graph below). This is the equivalent of nearly 100 typical-size new coal plants (600 MW), and indicates that EIA expects the trend of coal plant cancellations and rejections to continue.
The shift away from coal is largely made up of projected new gas plants, with some increase in renewable energy generation. By 2030, renewable energy generation would still only make up 9.2 percent of our generation mix, indicating that there is substantial room for improvement. Studies by EIA and UCS indicate that renewable energy could be increased to at least 20 to 25 percent of the U.S. electricity supply by 2020-2025 without any increase in electricity prices.
The EIA forecast also shows that the 2007 Energy Bill succeeded in making a small down payment on reducing our oil dependence and reducing global warming emissions.
But there is much work still to be done, through improving energy efficiency, developing renewable energy, and implementing cap and trade.
—The first graph shows the shift from building new coal plants to a greater reliance on natural gas and renewable energy development compared to last year's projection. This includes planned and unplanned additions using the data included in slide 17 of EIA's presentation and Table 9 of EIA's reference case results for AEO 2009 and AEO 2008 (released in June 2008).
—The second graph, slide 18 from EIA's presentation, shows a significant reduction in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from energy use in AEO 2009 compared to last year's projection. Most of the CO2 reduction in AEO 2009 is due to the reduction in coal use from new coal power plants, followed by lower oil use in transportation and industry. The reductions in these areas are partially offset by the increased use of natural gas for electricity. However, the shift from new coal and nuclear plants to natural gas and renewable electricity results in a net reduction of 228 million metric tons of CO2 emissions in the electricity sector – 52 percent of the total net reduction in U.S. emissions in AEO 2009.
—However, slide 19 of EIA's presentation shows that the electricity sector is still the dominant source of the growth in overall carbon dioxide emissions. Despite the net reduction in coal plant carbon dioxide emissions in 2030 in AEO 2009 compared to last year's projection, coal plants are still the single largest source of U.S. carbon dioxide emissions. They represent 36 percent of the total in 2030, which is more than the entire transportation sector, as shown in the figure below.
The Union of Concerned Scientists is the leading U.S. science-based nonprofit organization working for a healthy environment and a safer world. Founded in 1969, UCS is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and also has offices in Berkeley, Chicago and Washington, D.C.
