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UC Davis experts: On the centenary of the San Francisco earthquakeApril 18, 2006, marks the 100-year anniversary of the earthquake and fire that destroyed the city of San Francisco. The following UC Davis faculty are available to comment on topics related to the anniversary, including why the earthquake happened, and if and when it might happen again. If you need help with a subject not listed here, please contact Andy Fell, News Service, (530) 752-4533, ahfell@ucdavis.edu or Claudia Morain, News Service, (530) 752-9841, cmmorain@ucdavis.edu.
Forecasting the next major earthquakeThe San Francisco Bay region has a 25 percent chance of a magnitude 7 or greater earthquake in the next 20 years, and a roughly 1 percent chance of such an earthquake each year, according to the "Virtual California" computer simulation developed by John Rundle, director of the UC Davis Computational Science and Engineering Center, and colleagues from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and other institutions. The researchers aim to use sophisticated computer models, knowledge of fault patterns and satellite data to develop "forecasts" of areas that are likely to have a major earthquake within a certain time. They have already produced 10-year forecasts for California, Japan and worldwide, which are currently under test. Contact: John Rundle, Computational Science and Engineering Center, (530) 752-6416, jbrundle@ucdavis.edu. (Not available April 1-9.) Why organizations won't plan for disastersOrganizational sociologist Tom Beamish studies how organizations and institutions deal with disasters. Beamish, an associate professor of sociology, can talk about how organizations -- governmental, commercial and social -- respond to human-induced disasters. He says many disasters reflect long-term problems actively ignored or simply not seen by the organizations charged with protecting the public. "These organizations are generally reactive," he says. "Being proactive requires making difficult choices over funding and priorities, choosing among the risks, and overcoming a basic inertia in organizational routines." Beamish wrote "Silent Spill: The Organization of an Industrial Crisis" (2002). Contact: Tom Beamish, Sociology, (530) 754-6897, tdbeamish@ucdavis.edu.Earthquakes and earthquake preparednessKen Verosub is distinguished professor of geology at UC Davis. He has given many talks on earthquake preparedness in the home and at work, and was a member of Gov. Jerry Brown's Blue Ribbon Task Force on Earthquake Preparedness. In the upcoming spring quarter, which begins March 28, Verosub will be teaching a freshman seminar on the consequences and lessons learned, or not, from the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. He can comment on questions related to geology and earth sciences, including the history of the Earth, earthquakes, plate tectonics and natural disasters. He has won numerous awards for his teaching, including the Carnegie Foundation for the Advancement of Teaching's "California Professor of the Year" in 1997 and the UC Davis Foundation Prize for Undergraduate Teaching and Scholarly Achievement in 1996. Contact: Ken Verosub, Geology, (530) 752-6911, klverosub@ucdavis.edu. Why earthquakes happenWhy does California have so many earthquakes, and so many big ones? UC Davis associate professor and seismologist Jim McClain can explain the basic role of tectonic plate activity in causing earthquakes around the world, California's hazardous location at the collision of two of those plates, and the reasons why the Central Valley is relatively protected from devastating earthquakes. In spring quarter, McClain and Louise Kellogg will be teaching a freshman seminar on the San Francisco earthquake. Contact: Jim McClain, Geology, (530) 752-7093, mcclain@geology.ucdavis.edu. Louise Kellogg is professor and chair of the UC Davis Department of Geology. She studies how the slow movement of rock deep in the Earth's interior drives the movement of tectonic plates, building mountains as well as causing earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Contact: Louise Kellogg, Geology, (530) 752-3690, kellogg@geology.ucdavis.edu. Earthquake historyEnvironmental historian Ari Kelman can discuss the history of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, including how people made this "natural disaster" worse through human engineering, governmental decisions in the aftermath and reconstruction issues. Kelman focuses on the history of big cities and urban policies as well as on major natural disasters. He can also discuss how San Franciscans have chosen to memorialize the earthquake in the century since it occurred. Kelman wrote "A River and Its City: The Nature of Landscape in New Orleans" in 2003. Contact: Ari Kelman, History, (530) 752-1634, akelman@ucdavis.edu. Media contacts:
Last updated March 27, 2006 |
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