Changes in wholesale gasoline prices relative to crude oil are determined by the tightness between gasoline supply (production and net imports) and demand. Expectations for U.S. gasoline supply relative to demand are for a more favorable situation in January through May 2008 than was the case in the comparable 2007 period. Demand growth, which varies seasonally and depends on economic factors, is expected to slow. New gasoline supply is affected by refinery outages, refinery run decisions, and import variations. Planned refinery outages for January through May 2008 are lower than for the same period in 2007. Given lower planned outages and assuming the return of unplanned outages to more typical levels, including the return of BP's Texas City refinery to full operation, gasoline production could increase between 100 and 200 thousand barrels per day over last year's level, depending on the market incentives. In addition, ethanol use, which adds to gasoline supply, is expected to continue to increase. Considering the uncertainty in all the gasoline supply components, there is little likelihood of events combining in 2008 to lead to the kind of tight supply downstream from crude oil markets seen in spring 2007. In summary, refinery outage and import impacts should contribute less to gasoline price increases in 2008 than in 2007. If all of the low-range estimates for supply occurred, total gasoline supply would increase about 200 thousand barrels per day (Figure S1). However, record crude oil prices are nonetheless pushing current and expected gasoline prices to record levels.
