projects > determining target salinity values for South Florida's estuaries: the combined effects of climate, sea level, and water management practices > work plan
U.S. Geological Survey, Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science (GE PES)Fiscal Year 2007 Study Work PlanStudy Start Date: 10/1/06 Study End Date: 9/30/2010 Web Sites: http://sofia.usgs.gov/exchange/flaecohist/, http://sofia.usgs.gov/projects/eh_swcsrs/index.html Location (Subregions, Counties, Park or Refuge): Everglades National Park, Big Cypress National Preserve, Biscayne National Park, Ten Thousand Islands NWR. Monroe, Collier, and Lee Counties, FL. Funding Source: USGS Greater Everglades Priority Ecosystems Science (GE PES) Program Other Complementary Funding Source(s): None at this time Funding History: FY07 Principal Investigator(s): G. Lynn Wingard Study Personnel: T. Cronin, C. Holmes, M. Marot, J. Murray, W.B. Schill - USGS. Contract personnel: R. Ortiz, C. Budet, K. Waylen, J. Hudley and potentially a Pennsylvania State University Grad Student. Supporting Organizations: South Florida Water Management District; Everglades National Park; Biscayne National Park, Army Corps of Engineers, US Fish & Wildlife Service Associated / Linked Studies: Historical Changes in Salinity, Water Quality and Vegetation in Biscayne Bay (ended in FY06); Ecosystem History of the Southwest Coast-Shark River Slough Ouflow Area, Synthesis of South Florida Ecosystem History Research. Overview & Objective(s): The primary objective of this project will be to provide information to CERP managers that can be used to establish target salinity values and performance measures for the estuaries and coastal ecosystems. The information provided will consider the contribution of climate, sea level rise and anthropogenic alteration on salinity values in the estuaries and coastal systems of south Florida. This work will build upon previous work in Florida Bay and Biscayne Bay, and information derived from the Synthesis (Task 6) of these data. There are four areas of focus for this project. 1) Refine our existing modern analog data set by completing analyses of modern samples collected between 1996 and 2004 and applying these improved analog data to core data compiled in the Synthesis Task (Task 6). 2) Collect new cores (if necessary) within the southern estuaries to fill in information gaps identified by the land management agencies (Everglades National Park (ENP) and Biscayne National Park (BNP)), and by the Southern Estuaries Subteam of the Regional Evaluation Team (RET) of RECOVER. 3) Select a few sites in the transition zones to collect cores in a transect moving perpendicular to shore in order to analyze the rate of sea level rise in the region. 4) Work with our collaborators to plug all of the combined paleoecology data into linear regression models that can hindcast salinity for different parts of the system. Ultimately these efforts will lead to the ability to forecast the data and develop targets for the CERP 2050 Plan that take natural change into consideration.
Specific Relevance to Major Unanswered Questions and Information Needs Identified: (Page numbers below refer to DOI Science Plan.)
The importance and application of ecosystem history research to restoration goals has been identified in a number of documents. The DOI Science Plan lists as one of the three primary restoration activities the need to "ensure that hydrologic performance targets accurately reflect the natural predrainage hydrology and ecology" (DOI Science Plan, p. 14). The USGS Science Plan for south Florida (2003 draft, msp. 7) identifies five primary science goals, the second of which is to "determine the historical ecological setting of the Everglades." The primary goal of this project, and related previous ecosystem history projects, is to determine the predrainage hydrology and ecology of critical regions within the estuaries and coastal ecosystems of south Florida, identified by the Southern Estuaries Subteam and other client groups, which have been tasked with setting performance measures and targets for these coastal zones. This project specifically addresses the needs identified by the Southern Estuaries Module Subteam of the Regional Evaluation Team (RET) of RECOVER. The Southern Estuaries Subteam is tasked with establishing performance measures and salinity targets for the estuaries and initially the intent was to use the Natural Systems Model (NSM) as the primary basis for the target values. In spring 2005, however, the subteam ran simulations using the NSM for the Initial CERP Update (ICU) that returned salinity values far in excess of any anticipated. They therefore determined that the NSM was not a reliable indicator of near shore salinity patterns, and they have indicated a desire to rely on paleosalinity data to establish targets and performance measures. Coverage of cores in southern Biscayne Bay and northern Florida Bay is limited, however, with each basin having characteristic patterns. We therefore propose to build upon the earlier projects and fill in information gaps identified by the Southern Estuaries Subteam for Florida Bay, Biscayne Bay, and potentially parts of the southwest coastal area. While the primary goal of this project is to provide data to assist in the establishment of sustainable salinity targets and performance measures, this project also addresses a number of other restoration needs identified in the RFP. The data we gather can be used by the Biscayne Bay Coastal Wetlands Project to assist in developing minimum flows and levels. Our data on the biota present over time and their changes in response to changing water conditions can be used to address questions about natural habitats including the following: 1) the impact of existing and proposed freshwater flows on coastal communities; 2) responses of native organisms to the introduction of exotic species. We will examine the role of climate and sea level rise on changing salinity patterns in the coastal communities, how these natural changes have been over-printed by anthropogenic change, and how sea level and climate should be factored into restoration targets. A number of specific "major unanswered questions" asked in the DOI Science Plan can be answered by this research. These include the following:
This study supports these CERP projects by 1) conducting research to understand the predrainage hydrology, including the amount, timing and seasonality of freshwater delivered to the estuaries historically; 2) examining the historical environmental conditions, including the linkage between hydrology (water quality and quantity), ecology, and habitats; 3) providing modelers with data on historic conditions in order to set targets and performance measures that reflect natural hydrologic patterns; and 4) providing long-term historical data on trends and cycles within the biological component of the ecosystem that can be forecasted to predict the effects of implementation of hydrologic restoration on the ecology of coastal communities. Status: New project in FY07 Recent Products: New project in FY07 Planned Products: A glossy publication (USGS Circular and/or fact sheet) summarizing the history of south Florida's estuaries in a format that would appeal to the general public and to land managers WORK PLAN Title of Task 1: Development of Salinity Targets for CERP through application of Paleoecologic Data Task Summary and Objectives: Work to be undertaken during the proposal year and a description of the methods and procedures: Specific Task Product(s): Title of Task 2: Assessment of sea level rise in South Florida's estuaries Task Summary and Objectives: Work to be undertaken during the proposal year and a description of the methods and procedures: Specific Task Product(s): |
U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey
This page is: http://sofia.usgs.gov/projects/workplans07/salinity_values.html
Comments and suggestions? Contact: Heather Henkel - Webmaster
Last updated: 30 July, 2007 @ 01:48 PM(KP)