This report responds to a request from Senator Barbara Cubin received on February 3, 2004, to provide an assessment of three low natural gas supply scenarios. To address this request, the Energy Information Administration modeled four cases: no increased availability of Alaska natural gas, no significant increase in nonconventional gas production, a limited number of new LNG facilities, and a case that combined the above three items. The four cases examined in this study have progressively greater impacts on overall natural gas consumption, prices, and supply. When compared to the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 reference case, the no increased availability of Alaska natural gas has the least impact; the low liquefied natural gas case has more impact; the low nonconventional gas recovery case has even more impact; and the combined case has the most impact.

Contents	(complete Report)
Preface
Introduction
Analysis Summary
No Alaska Pipeline Case and AEO2004 Reference Case
Low Liquefied Natural Gas Recovery Case and AEO2004 Reference Case
Low Unconventional Gas Recovery Case and AEO2004 Reference Case
Combined Case and AEO2004 Reference Case
Appendix A: Letter from Representative Cubin
Appendix B: Comparison of AEO2004 and Restricted Natural Gas Supply Cases
Appendix C: Annual Results of the Restricted Natural Gas Supply Cases
Contacts