Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Versions: 1
2
000 AXUS73 KMQT 161916 DGTMQT MIC003-013-041-043-053-061-071-083-095-103-109-131-153-301930- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 216 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009 ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN... SYNOPSIS... THE JANUARY 13TH RELEASE OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS CONTINUED THE SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...DUE TO THE LONG TERM...180 DAY...PRECIPITATION DEFICIT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. COUNTIES THAT REMAIN IN A SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CATEGORY INCLUDE MENOMINEE...DICKINSON...SOUTHWESTERN DELTA...EXTREME SOUTHERN MARQUETTE AND SOUTHEASTERN IRON COUNTIES. A MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SKANEE...TO ESCANABA. ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS COVER LOCATIONS EAST OF THE D1 LINE AND WEST OF A LINE FROM NEGAUNEE TO MANISTIQUE. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... NO KNOWN LOCAL...AGRICULTURAL...FIRE...OR WATER IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. CLIMATE SUMMARY... NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER RANGES FROM 1.5 INCHES TO 3.5 INCHES. AS SHOWN IN THE LIST BELOW...MOST LOCATIONS IN UPPER MICHIGAN RECEIVED NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING DECEMBER. HERE ARE SOME DECEMBER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN: LOCATION DECEMBER PRECIPITATION HERMAN 1.66 INCHES AMASA 1.69 INCHES STAMBAUGH 1.75 INCHES IRON MOUNTAIN 2.12 INCHES /0.63 INCH ABOVE NORMAL/ WATTON 2.14 INCHES IRONWOOD 2.15 INCHES /0.10 INCH ABOVE NORMAL/ BARAGA 2.16 INCHES BIG BAY 2.16 INCHES CLARKSBURG 2.28 INCHES GWINN 2.32 INCHES BARK RIVER 2.36 INCHES MENOMINEE 2.36 INCHES THOUSAND ISLAND LK 2.42 INCHES ESCANABA 2.43 INCHES MARQUETTE CITY 2.60 INCHES /0.63 INCH ABOVE NORMAL/ CORNELL 2.69 INCHES AHMEEK 2.79 INCHES GARDEN CORNERS 2.87 INCHES PAINESDALE 3.18 INCHES MANISTIQUE 3.27 INCHES /1.61 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL/ ONTONAGON 3.32 INCHES /0.29 INCH ABOVE NORMAL/ HOUGHTON CNTY APT 3.32 INCHES /0.16 INCH BELOW NORMAL/ NWS MARQUETTE 3.46 INCHES /1.03 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL/ GLADSTONE 3.54 INCHES COPPER HARBOR 3.64 INCHES CHATHAM 3.93 INCHES MCMILLAN 4.07 INCHES COOKS 4.08 INCHES WETMORE 4.28 INCHES MOHAWK 4.46 INCHES NEWBERRY 4.68 INCHES /2.06 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL/ MUNISING 5.39 INCHES /2.40 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL/ OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN...SEVERAL SITES RECORDED LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS MORE THAN 3 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL...INCLUDING MCMILLAN AND NEWBERRY IN LUCE COUNTY...AND MUNISING IN ALGER COUNTY. NEWBERRY EXPERIENCED THE SNOWIEST AND THIRD WETTEST DECEMBER ON RECORD. IN MANISTIQUE...IT WAS THE THIRD WETTEST AND EIGHT SNOWIEST DECEMBER AND IN MUNISING...IT WAS THE THIRD SNOWIEST AND SIXTH WETTEST DECEMBER. THUS...THE D0 DROUGHT STATUS HAS BEEN REMOVED EAST OF A LINE FROM NEGAUNEE TO MANISTIQUE. EVEN THOUGH SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN HAS RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING DECEMBER...THE LONG TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICIT...OVER THE LAST 180 DAYS...STILL REMAINS 4 TO 8 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THAT PRECIPITATION DEFICIT IS 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF THE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THAT TIME RANGE. THUS...THE SEVERE DROUGHT CATEGORY CONTINUES FOR THAT AREA. OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS HAS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. FOR EXAMPLE...IRONWOOD IS 1.41 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL FROM SEPTEMBER TO DECEMBER. THEREFORE...IF NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OCCURS OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS...IMPROVEMENT IN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGIONS. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY 2009...ABOVE NORMAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW REGIONS FAVORED BY NORTHWEST WINDS. THIS INCLUDES LOCATIONS EAST OF MUNISING...THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND IN GOGEBIC AND ONTONAGON COUNTIES. OVER THE REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN...NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN. THE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY PRODUCED A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS BROUGHT COLD AIR ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND CREATED LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...TEMPERATURES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE RETURNING TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...BRINGING SNOW TO ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN. BEHIND THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS FAVORED BY A NORTHWEST WIND. OVERALL...LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW REGIONS MENTIONED ABOVE AND NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THE PRECIPITATION IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW REGIONS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/ IS FORECASTING A HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER UPPER MICHIGAN IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK...WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN. FOR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD FROM FEBRUARY 2009 TO APRIL 2009...CPC HAS EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...NORMAL...OR BELOW TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... WITH THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN IN DECEMBER...MOST PRECIPITATION OVER UPPER MICHIGAN HAS FALLEN AS SNOW. THEREFORE...SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE AREA ARE AT NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. SNOW DEPTHS IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW REGIONS OF NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR RANGE FROM 20 TO 40 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN...AWAY FROM THE REACHES OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...10 TO 17 INCHES OF SNOW IS ON THE GROUND. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT /SWE/ VALUES ARE ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. FOR EXAMPLE...THE SWE VALUE ON JANUARY 13 AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN NEGAUNEE TOWNSHIP WAS 5.2 INCHES...WHICH WAS ABOVE THE NORMAL VALUE OF 3.75 INCHES. LOOKING AT THE USGS 28 DAY STREAMFLOW DURATION HYDROGRAPHS ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...MANY LOCATIONS ARE CLASSIFIED AS BELOW NORMAL OR MUCH BELOW NORMAL. THIS IS EXPECTED...DUE TO THE EXISTING DRY CONDITIONS GOING INTO THE WINTER MONTHS AND ONLY A LITTLE SNOW MELT DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV MICHIGAN CLIMATE OFFICE...HTTP://CLIMATE.GEO.MSU.EDU ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS USGS...HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/ USACE...HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 112 AIRPARK DR S NEGAUNEE MI 49866 PHONE...906-475-5212 W-MQT.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV $$ SRF
