BERKELEY, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Steve Jobs is Apple. Without Steve Jobs, Apple will survive but will begin to fade into the gray, me-too corporate abyss from whence it emerged when he returned to save the company in 1996. An unlucky 13 years later, the journey is over.
I'm not saying Jobs' health has now reached a critical condition; from all accounts, he does not think so. But from all accounts, none of this looks good.
The likelihood of Jobs ever returning to the company he founded, I believe, is nil. So we have to wonder what will become it.
Well, nothing will become of Apple at first. Products are in the pipeline and development is ongoing. It took Jobs a little less than two years to get Apple back on track once he returned.
Apple could become like a John Wayne movie with no John Wayne. You begin to notice something is missing.
I'm guessing the corporate lead time for product design and development is about two years then. This means that the Jobs legacy will last until 2011 before anything begins to drift.
There is always the possibility that a good chief executive emerges that makes Apple a rock-solid investment for years to come. But at some point, Apple becomes like a John Wayne movie with no John Wayne. You begin to notice something is missing.
In the case of Steve Jobs, it is a maniacal ability to find what isn't there but should be (discovery of new technologies), combined with an outrageous sense of aesthetic attractiveness.
Who but Jobs would have found that hi-resolution touch screen used on the iPhone? That came out of left field, to say the least. Now every device maker uses them.
Jobs force-fit the iPod into a market that was moribund with various MP3 players but without any raw appeal.
Apple without Steve Jobs is Sony.
A new chief such as Tim Cook may be able to replace Jobs the chief executive, but you can be certain that Steve Jobs the visionary dreamer will be replaced by the ubiquitous focus group. Then things really will begin to fall apart.
Jobs always seemed like more of an artist in his temperament and sensitivity than a technologist. Heck, he even dresses like an artist, with the jeans and black St. Croix mock turtleneck as a uniform of sorts. (Jobs could have repopularized the beret if he wanted to. I guess he knew better not to.)
It's this artist sensibility and artistic judgment that made the products appealing and made them objects of desire. The fact is you cannot maintain the kind of margins Apple often manages unless you're selling more sizzle than steak. I don't see how executives can do it without Jobs being there to tell them they are wrong.
I also cannot see any other executive being able to pull off the popular presentations. Onstage, Jobs can make the mundane seem interesting. He can somehow sexualize the look and feel of a new product and glamorize it in front of an adoring audience while not looking like a cornball or a psych job.
The industry will miss Steve Jobs, and so will the Apple shareholders. We'll see how much he is really missed a few years from now when the creative void becomes more apparent.
