September 1998 Downy Mildew Forecasts

Date Issued: 30 March 1998
Disease location(s): NE Collier County, SW of Immokalee
Trajectory Start (shown by red dot on map): Immokalee, FL

This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Downy Mildew spores, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimate of potential disease spread over the next two days.

Regional weather: Monday, March 30 - Southeast U.S.: Partly cloudy days, chance of light showers evenings for S. Florida. Frontal system now in central U.S. will be moving eastward into the region on Tuesday.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy today and tonight, slight chance of showers early today. High in the upper 70's, low in the 60's. Increasing cloudiness early Tuesday with a chance of showers, becoming mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a good chance of showers or thunderstorms, high in the 70's.

Trajectory confidence: High.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** Conditions are somewhat favorable for long-range spore movement. Some airborne spores will die from exposure today. Some will survive and be carried onward; some may be rained out near the source. Those spores that go on will likely be washed out Tuesday over the western panhandle of Florida, or in Alabama. Weakly Moderate Risk of Localized disease development near the source. Moderate Risk of disease development in far west FL and Alabama. Best chance of deposition is in central and northern Alabama Tuesday afternoon. Growers in that area should be especially watchful.

Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.

Prepared by: Thomas Keever, Gerald Holmes, C.E. Main, J.M. Davis, Departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-7616.

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