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Updated 17 September 2008
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Climate Variability and Change Near-Term (Fiscal Year 2009) Plans |
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Climate Variability and ChangeNear-Term Plans Archived News Postings [June 2000 - July 2005] CCSP / USGCRP Climate Variability and Change Working Group Members
Past Accomplishments:
Climate Change Science Program. FY 2008 Scientific Research Budget by USGCRP Research Element |
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HIGHLIGHTS OF PLANS FOR FY 2009Completing a Historical Reanalysis of the Atmosphere for the 20th Century. CCSP research has shown the feasibility of using modern data assimilation techniques together with observations of sea level pressure to produce a global analysis of tropospheric weather patterns at 6-hour temporal resolution for periods prior to the advent of extensive upper-air observations around 1950. Production of this first historical reanalysis will be completed in 2009. This reanalysis will provide, for the first time, a high-temporal resolution objective analysis of tropospheric weather and climate conditions over the entire 20th century. This historical reanalysis will help researchers address questions about the range of natural variability of high-impact events like floods, droughts, hurricanes, and extratropical cyclones, and how ENSO and other climate modes alter these events. This reanalysis will also help to clarify the origins of climate variations that produced major societal impacts and profoundly influenced policies, including the 1930s Dust Bowl drought and the prolonged cool, very wet period in the western United States early in the 20th century that led to over-allocation of Colorado River water through the 1922 Colorado Compact. This activity will address Goals 1 and 3 and Questions 4.2, 4.4, and 4.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Developing a National Capacity for Integrated Earth System Analysis. CCSP continues to place high priority on developing a national capacity for integrated Earth system analysis that will enable scientists to better understand interactions among Earth system components that may produce rapid or unexpected climate changes, as well as high-impact weather and climate events. Achieving this capability requires parallel advancements in coupled Earth system modeling and the ability to assimilate Earth system observations into models. A coupled ocean-atmosphereland- ice model will serve as the basis for developing a reanalysis of the evolution of these Earth system components over the period of extensive satellite observations from 1979 to the present. This reanalysis will also help support research and modeling capabilities required to improve seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. This activity will address Goals 1 and 3 and Questions 4.2, 4.4, and 4.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Advancing Understanding of the Causes of Drought. Under the auspices of the U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) project, a number of CCSP agencies initiated an activity in FY 2007 to support research into the physical and dynamical mechanisms leading to drought and the mechanisms through which drought may change as climate changes. The Drought in Coupled Models Project (DRICOMP) focuses on evaluating a variety of existing model products to address issues like the roles of the oceans and the seasonal cycle in drought, the impacts of drought on water availability, and distinctions between drought and drying. Based on a competition during FY 2007, 16 projects were selected to analyze and evaluate unforced control runs archived as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) multi-model data set, as well as the multi-model simulations of 20th-century climate and the long stabilized simulations with forcing held fixed at future climate conditions. The objective of DRICOMP is to increase community-wide diagnostic research into the physical mechanisms of drought and to evaluate its simulation in current models. DRICOMP will lead to more robust evaluations of model projections of drought risk and severity and thus to a better quantification of the uncertainty in such projections. In FY 2009, a workshop will be held during which results of the DRICOMP project will be summarized, and results from this interagency-supported project will be published. This activity will address Goals 1 and 3 and Questions 4.2, 4.3, and 4.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Abrupt Climate Change and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. The AMOC is thought to play an important role in the global ocean circulation, and therefore consequences to climate resulting from its variability, particularly in the North Atlantic, could be significant. Despite the potential for serious impacts, there are substantial gaps in knowledge concerning the AMOC and how it varies within the global climate system. Responding to recommendations in the report Charting the Course for Ocean Science in the United States for the Next Decade: An Ocean Research Priorities Plan and Implementation Strategy by the National Science and Technology Council Joint Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology, several CCSP agencies will implement a program in FY 2009 that will lead to new capabilities for monitoring and predicting AMOC changes. In addition, it is anticipated that an abrupt climate change modeling activity initiated in FY 2008 will be continued in FY 2009. This activity would focus on examining attribution of past abrupt climate change, as well as the likelihood of future abrupt climate change based on climate change projections using dynamical coupled climate models. This activity will address Goals 1 and 3 and Questions 4.1, 4.2, 4.3, and 4.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan. Improving High-End Modeling Capabilities for Decision Support. Modeling efforts will emphasize the continuing development of global and regional high-resolution atmospheric models. One major emphasis is to improve simulations of the climatology, interannual variability, and trends in Atlantic hurricane activity. These dynamical modeling studies promise to provide essential information to complement observational research based on historical hurricane records. In addition, through the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), several regional models will be used to downscale global model projections used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report to better estimate future climate changes over North America. NARCCAP modeling efforts will be complemented by global atmospheric model runs at high resolution (~50 km) over specific time periods performed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This activity will address CCSP Goal 3 and Questions 4.1, 4.2, 4.4, and 4.5 of the CCSP Strategic Plan.
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